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Facing a huge fiscal burden due to imports of entire petroleum despite the availability of a surplus of agricultural land to produce biofuels, Zambia, a country in Sub-Saharan Africa, has recently introduced a biofuel mandate. But, a number of questions, particularly those related to the economics of biofuels, have not been fully investigated yet. Using an empirical model this study analyzes the economics of meeting the biodiesel mandate through soybean feedstock. The study finds that meeting the biodiesel mandate with biodiesel from soybeans would reduce social welfare because the country's soybean imports would cost more than the expected reduction in petroleum imports. However, if Zambia increases its domestic soybean supply along with its capacity to convert soybean to biodiesel, as well as oil yield, soybean based biodiesel is likely to be welfare-beneficial, even if biodiesel prices are above diesel prices. The study also finds that under current market prices and transportation costs and constraints, the same amount of biodiesel can be produced most cost-effectively with a tax exemption. A blend mandate would be less cost effective, while a biodiesel production subsidy represents the least efficient policy option.
Biodiesel --- Biofuels --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Energy --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Markets and Market Access --- Renewable Energy --- Soybeans --- Zambia
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Using an empirical model, this study provides some insights into the functioning of the oilseed-biodiesel-diesel market complex in a large country that determines the biodiesel price, reflecting market equilibrium changes resulting from volatility in the crude oil price. Oilseed crushing produces joint products-oil and meal-and this weakens the link between the biodiesel and oilseed feedstock prices. Higher crude oil prices increase biodiesel prices if biofuel benefits from a fuel tax exemption, but lower them with a blending mandate (minimum biofuel content requirement in marketed fuel). When both canola and soybeans are used to produce biodiesel, an increase in the crude oil price leads to higher canola prices, but the effect on soybean prices is ambiguous and depends on relative elasticities of meal demand and canola supply because canola produces more oil than soybeans. An oil price shock with a blending mandate results in a smaller change in oilseed prices compared with a fuel tax exemption. Jumps in world crude oil prices have differential impacts on commodity prices and welfare in developing countries, depending on which policy determines the biodiesel price in OECD countries.
Biodiesel policies --- Canola --- Developing countries --- Emerging Markets --- Energy --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Markets and Market Access --- Oil price --- Oil Refining & Gas Industry --- Renewable Energy --- Soybean
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The lack of growth in the Brazilian sugarcane-ethanol complex since the 2008 financial crisis has been blamed on policies: lower mandate, holding gasoline prices below world levels, high fuel taxes, and inadequate fuel tax exemptions for ethanol. This paper develops an empirical model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex to analyze the impacts of these policies. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique such that each policy, in theory, has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. The results indicate two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry do otherwise in reality: low gasoline taxes and high anhydrous tax exemptions lower ethanol prices. But higher mandates, hydrous ethanol tax exemptions, and gasoline prices had the expected impact of increasing ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent. Observed changes in prices are explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and bad weather reducing sugarcane supply.
Alcohol and Substance Abuse --- Bagasse --- Blend mandate --- E100 demand --- E25 demand --- Energy --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Ethanol --- Flex-plant --- Fuel tax exemptions --- Markets and Market Access --- Renewable Energy --- Sugar --- Sugarcane --- Transport and Environment --- Brazil
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