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This paper investigates the causal consequences of Tropical Storm Agatha (2010)-the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala since rainfall records have been kept-on household welfare. The analysis reveals substantial negative effects, particularly among urban households. Per capita consumption fell by 12.6 percent, raising poverty by 5.5 percentage points (an increase of 18 percent). The negative effects of the shock span other areas of human welfare. Households cut back on food consumption (10 percent or 43 to 108 fewer calories per person per day) and reduced expenditures on basic durables. These effects are related to a drop in income per capita (10 percent), mostly among salaried workers. Adults coped with the shock by increasing their labor supply (on the intensive margin) and simultaneously relying on the labor supply of their children and withdrawing them from school. Impact heterogeneity is associated with the intensity of the shock, food price inflation, and the timing of Agatha with respect to the harvest cycle of the main crops. The results are robust to placebo treatments, household migration, issues of measurement error, and different samples. The negative effects of the storm partly explain the increase in poverty seen in urban Guatemala between 2006 and 2011, which national authorities and analysts previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis.
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Over the last decade Latin America and the Caribbean region has achieved important progress towards the World Bank Group's goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting income growth of the bottom 40 percent, propelled by remarkable economic growth and falling income inequality. Despite this impressive performance, social progress has not been uniform over this period, and certain countries, subregions and even socioeconomic groups participated less in the growth process. As of today, more than 75 million people still live in extreme poverty in the region (using 2.50/day/capita), half of t
Caribbean Area -- Social policy. --- Economic assistance, Domestic -- Caribbean Area. --- Economic assistance, Domestic -- Latin America. --- Economic development -- Caribbean Area. --- Economic development -- Latin America. --- Income distribution -- Caribbean Area. --- Income distribution -- Latin America. --- Latin America -- Social policy. --- Poverty -- Caribbean Area. --- Poverty -- Government policy -- Caribbean Area. --- Poverty -- Government policy -- Latin America. --- Poverty -- Latin America. --- Poverty --- Economic assistance, Domestic --- Economic development --- Income distribution --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Government policy --- Caribbean Area --- Latin America --- Economic conditions --- Economic policy.
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