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Theory of knowledge --- Logic. --- Reasoning. --- Thought and thinking. --- Logic --- Reasoning --- Thought and thinking --- Mind --- Thinking --- Thoughts --- Educational psychology --- Philosophy --- Psychology --- Intellect --- Perception --- Psycholinguistics --- Self --- Argumentation --- Ratiocination --- Reason --- Judgment (Logic) --- Deduction (Logic) --- Deductive logic --- Dialectic (Logic) --- Logic, Deductive --- Science --- Methodology

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The Empire of Chance tells how quantitative ideas of chance transformed the natural and social sciences, as well as daily life over the last three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact in biology, physics and psychology. Themes recur - determinism, inference, causality, free will, evidence, the shifting meaning of probability - but in dramatically different disciplinary and historical contexts. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centres on how these technical innovations remade our conceptions of nature, mind and society. Written by an interdisciplinary team of historians and philosophers, this readable, lucid account keeps technical material to an absolute minimum. It is aimed not only at specialists in the history and philosophy of science, but also at the general reader and scholars in other disciplines.

510.21 --- 168.521 --- Mathematical statistics --- Science --- -Mathematics --- Statistical inference --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Probabilities --- Sampling (Statistics) --- 168.521 Natuurwetenschappen. Exacte wetenschappen --- Natuurwetenschappen. Exacte wetenschappen --- 510.21 General philosophical considerations. Critical aspects. Logical antinomies --- General philosophical considerations. Critical aspects. Logical antinomies --- Natural science --- Science of science --- Sciences --- Philosophy --- Statistical methods --- Mathematics --- Normal science --- Philosophy of science --- Probability --- Combinations --- Chance --- Least squares --- Risk --- Mathematical statistics. --- Probabilities. --- Philosophy. --- Arts and Humanities --- History --- Science - Philosophy

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An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how. Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Decision making --- Risk-taking (Psychology) --- Statistics --- Choice (Psychology) --- Risk assessment --- Prise de décision --- Risque, Prise de (Psychologie) --- Statistique --- Choix (Psychologie) --- Evaluation du risque --- Decision Making. --- Prise de décision. --- Statistiques. --- Prise de risque. --- Decision Making

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People often confuse intuition with a sixth sense or the arbitrary judgments of inept decision makers. In this book, Gerd Gigerenzer analyzes the war on intuition in the social sciences beginning with gendered perceptions of intuition as female, followed by opposition between biased intuition and logical rationality, popularized in two-system theories. Technological paternalism amplifies these views, arguing that human intuition should be replaced by perfect algorithms. In opposition to these beliefs, this book proposes that intuition is a form of unconscious intelligence based on years of experience that evolved to deal with uncertain and dynamic situations where logic and big data algorithms are of little benefit. Gigerenzer introduces the scientific study of intuition and shows that intuition is not irrational caprice but is instead based on smart heuristics. Researchers, students, and general readers with an interest in decision making, heuristics and biases, cognitive psychology, and behavioral public policy will benefit.

Intuition. --- Decision making.

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Cognitive psychology