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The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations-analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind-were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

Intelligence service --- Iraq War, 2003-2011 --- Weapons of mass destruction --- Evaluation --- Military intelligence --- Evaluation. --- United States. --- Iran --- History --- Anglo-American Invasion of Iraq, 2003-2011 --- Dawn, Operation New, 2010-2011 --- Gulf War II, 2003-2011 --- Iraqi Freedom, Operation, 2003-2010 --- New Dawn, Operation, 2010-2011 --- Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003-2010 --- Operation New Dawn, 2010-2011 --- Operation Telic, 2003-2011 --- Persian Gulf War, 2003-2011 --- Telic, Operation, 2003-2011 --- Counter intelligence --- Counterespionage --- Counterintelligence --- Intelligence community --- Secret police (Intelligence service) --- Agjencia Qendrore e Inteligjencës --- Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.) --- CIA (Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.)) --- CIP (United States. Centrālās izlūkošanas pārvalde) --- Mei-kuo chung yang chʻing pao chü --- National Security Council (U.S.). --- Si Aing Ei --- T︠S︡entralʹnoe razvedyvatelʹnoe upravlenie SShA --- T︠S︡RU SShA --- T︠S︡RU (T︠S︡entralʹnoe razvedyvatelʹnoe upravlenie SShA) --- ЦРУ США --- ЦРУ (Центральное разведывательное управление США) --- Центральное разведывательное управление США --- ארצות הברית. --- 美國. --- War on Terrorism, 2001-2009 --- Public administration --- Research --- Disinformation --- Secret service --- National Security Council (U.S.) --- CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) --- Polemology --- United States --- Case studies --- United States. Central Intelligence Agency --- Revolution, 1979 --- Iraq --- Intelligence service - United States - Evaluation - Case studies --- Iraq War, 2003-2011 - Military intelligence - United States - Evaluation --- Weapons of mass destruction - Iraq --- Iran - History - Revolution, 1979 --- United States of America

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International relations. --- 327 --- International relations --- #SBIB:327.1H10 --- Coexistence --- Foreign affairs --- Foreign policy --- Foreign relations --- Global governance --- Interdependence of nations --- International affairs --- Peaceful coexistence --- World order --- National security --- Sovereignty --- World politics --- Buitenlandse betrekkingen. Buitenlandse politiek. Internationale betrekkingen. Internationale politiek. Wereldpolitiek --- Internationale betrekkingen: theorieën --- World politicsBuitenlandse betrekkingen. Buitenlandse politiek. Internationale betrekkingen. Internationale politiek. Wereldpolitiek --- 327 Buitenlandse betrekkingen. Buitenlandse politiek. Internationale betrekkingen. Internationale politiek. Wereldpolitiek

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International relations.

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Polemology --- United States --- United States of America

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To say that the world changed drastically on 9/11 has become a truism and even a cliché. But the incontestable fact is that a new era for both the world and US foreign policy began on that infamous day and the ramifications for international politics have been monumental.In this book, one of the leading thinkers in international relations, Robert Jervis, provides us with several snapshots of world politics over the past few years. Jervis brings his acute analysis of international politics to bear on several recent developments that have transformed international politics and American f

War on Terrorism, 2001-2009. --- Deterrence (Strategy) --- War. --- World politics --- International relations. --- Security, International. --- Balance of power. --- Armed conflict (War) --- Conflict, Armed (War) --- Fighting --- Hostilities --- Wars --- International relations --- Military art and science --- Peace --- Military policy --- Psychology, Military --- Strategy --- First strike (Nuclear strategy) --- Nuclear crisis stability --- Global Struggle Against Violent Extremism, 2001-2009 --- Global War on Terror, 2001-2009 --- GWOT, 2001-2009 (War on Terrorism) --- Terror War, 2001-2009 --- Terrorism War, 2001-2009 --- War against Terrorism, 2001-2009 --- War on Terror, 2001-2009 --- Military history, Modern --- Terrorism --- Afghan War, 2001 --- -Iraq War, 2003-2011 --- Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001 --- -Power, Balance of --- Power politics --- Political realism --- Collective security --- International security --- Disarmament --- International organization --- Coexistence --- Foreign affairs --- Foreign policy --- Foreign relations --- Global governance --- Interdependence of nations --- International affairs --- Peaceful coexistence --- World order --- National security --- Sovereignty --- Prevention --- Bush, George W. --- Bush, George, --- Bush, Geo, --- Bush, Dzhordzh Uoker, --- Bush, Dzh. U. --- Bush, Dzh. --- Bush, --- Bushi, Qiaozhi W., --- Bush, Zhorzh, --- Arbusto, Jorge W., --- Bush, Xhorxh W., --- Political and social views. --- United States --- Afghan War, 2001-2021 --- Iraq War, 2003-2011 --- Power, Balance of --- -Prevention