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Prais (1958) showed that the CPI computed by statistical agencies can be interpreted as a weighed average of household price indexes, the weight of each household determined by its total expenditures. We decompose the difference between the standard CPI and a democratically weighed index (i.e., the plutocratic bias) as the product of average income, income inequality, and the covariance between individual price indexes and a parameter related to each good's income elasticity. This decomposition allows us to interpret variations in the size and sign of the plutocratic bias, and also to discuss issues pertaining to group indexes.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Consumer price indexes --- Income --- Income inequality --- Household consumption --- Prices --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Price indexes --- Income distribution --- Consumption --- Economics --- Spain
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This paper extends the analogy, previously established by Learner (1978a), between a Bayesian inference problem and an economics allocation problem to show that posterior modes can be interpreted as optimal outcomes of a bargaining game. This bargaining game, over a parameter value, is played between two players: the researcher (with preferences represented by the prior) and the data (with preferences represented by the likelihood).
Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Public finance & taxation --- Tax incentives --- Consumption --- Economics
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We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more “optimistic” conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin’s results.
Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Economics: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Education: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Health: General --- Education --- Economics of specific sectors --- Bayesian inference --- Health economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Informal economy --- Bayesian models --- Health --- Exchange rates --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Econometric models
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This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation.
Data Revisions --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Debt --- Real-time Output Data --- Science Education
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This paper assesses whether the level of taxation of motor fuel is broadly appropriate in a group of countries (OECD, BRICs and South Africa) accounting for more than 80 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis deals with emissions from oil combustion in transport, which account for about 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions. In the benchmark specification, six countries (responsible, in turn, for more than 40 percent of worldwide motor-fuel greenhouse gas world emissions) would be undertaxing motor fuel. The authors evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the values of the elasticities and externalities that used in the analysis. They find that varying the values of these parameters (within the level of uncertainty reasonably associated with them) significantly affects the results. This implies that, while informative, the results must be taken as indicative. Further analysis for a particular country must rely on a well-informed choice for the values of the country-specific parameters.
Carbon dioxide --- Carbon dioxide emissions --- Climate change --- Climate Change Economics --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Costs --- Elasticities --- Energy --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Environmental taxes --- Excise tax --- Externalities --- Fuel taxation --- Gasoline --- Gasoline price --- Gasoline prices --- Gasoline taxation --- Greenhouse gas --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Motor fuel --- Subsidies --- Tax --- Taxation & Subsidies --- Taxes --- Transport --- Transport Economics Policy & Planning
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"Getting the prices right" is a good starting point but is not sufficient for achieving environmentally efficient outcomes. Other policy interventions are often necessary to complement pricing policies. Moreover, when pricing is not at all feasible, regulatory and command-and-control policies must be used instead. This paper focuses on three interrelated themes at the core of the pricing problem. First, there is the incorporation of non-marketed activities with environmental consequences into aggregate measures of economic performance: the so-called "green-GDP." Second, there is the problem regarding the reliable estimation of the valuation of the shadow prices that properly reflect environmental externalities. Third, there is the issue of full-cost pricing that requires the pricing of environmental externalities for guiding both individual and public decision-making.
Climate Change Economics --- Economic Theory & Research --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Green accounting --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Poverty Reduction --- Revealed preference methods --- Shadow prices --- Total economic value --- Transport Economics Policy & Planning --- Use value
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It is generally acknowledged that the government’s output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution, adopted by national accounts systems, is to equate output to input costs. However, several studies estimate significant inefficiencies in government activities (i.e., same output could be achieved with less inputs), implying that inputs are not a good approximation for outputs. If taken seriously, the next logical step is to purge from GDP the fraction of government inputs that is wasted. As differences in the quality of the public sector have a direct impact on citizens’ effective consumption of public and private goods and services, we must take them into account when computing a measure of living standards. We illustrate such a correction computing corrected per capita GDPs on the basis of two studies that estimate efficiency scores for several dimensions of government activities. We show that the correction could be significant, and rankings of living standards could be re-ordered as a result.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Cost and standard of living. --- Economic development. --- Comfort, Standard of --- Cost of living --- Food, Cost of --- Household expenses --- Living, Cost of --- Living, Standard of --- Standard of living --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Consumption (Economics) --- Home economics --- Households --- Quality of life --- Wealth --- Luxury --- Prices --- Purchasing power --- Wages --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Surveys --- Economic development --- Cost and standard of living --- Gross domestic product --- National income --- Government productivity --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Productivity, Government --- Capital productivity --- Production (Economic theory) --- Public administration --- Net national product --- Flow of funds --- Gross national product --- Income --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Publicly Provided Goods: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Health: General --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Education: General --- General Aggregative Models: General --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Health economics --- Civil service & public sector --- Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Health --- Public sector --- National accounts --- Health care spending --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Finance, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Cyprus
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We define the plutocratic bias as the difference between inflation measured according to the current official CPI and a democratic index in which all households receive the same weight. We estimate that during the 1990s the plutocratic bias in Spain amounts to 0.055 percent per year. However, positive and negative biases cancel off when averaging over the whole period. The mean absolute bias is significantly larger, 0.090. We can explain most of the oscillations experimented by the plutocratic bias by the price behavior of three goods: a luxury good and two necessities.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Consumer price indexes --- Price indexes --- Household consumption --- Total expenditures --- Prices --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Consumption --- Economics --- Expenditures, Public --- United States
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