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Does the South African rand’s relatively large volatility affect inflation? To shed some light on this question, a standard estimation technique of exchange rate pass-through to inflation is extended to incorporate exchange rate volatility. Estimated results suggest that higher exchange rate volatility tends to increase core inflation but to a relatively limited extent in South Africa. The finding lends support to the policy of allowing the rand to float freely and work as a shock absorber, consistent with the nation’s successful inflation targeting regime.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Investments: General --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Depreciation --- Output gap --- Prices --- National accounts --- Production --- Saving and investment --- Economic theory --- South Africa

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Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.

Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Investments: Stocks --- Computational Techniques --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Nonperforming loans --- Credit --- Financial statements --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Stocks --- Loans --- Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- Saudi Arabia

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The literature has analyzed the link between social grants, means-tested and unconditional on employment, and employment in South Africa. The country’s social grant expenditure is relatively large amid persistently high unemployment. This study uses a large panel household survey spanning a decade to find that old-age and disability grant recipients are less in employment as intended by the social program, consistent with the literature. The study adds to the literature by showing that, among “indirect recipients,” younger members typically have lower employment prospects than other indirect recipients. There could be various explanation for this finding, including that the youth are more discouraged from seeking jobs, face larger constraints in the labor market, or have less job opportunities.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Labor --- Demography --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Organizations: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Education: General --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Education --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Income --- National accounts --- International agencies --- Economic theory --- Population aging --- South Africa

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The literature has analyzed the link between social grants, means-tested and unconditional on employment, and employment in South Africa. The country’s social grant expenditure is relatively large amid persistently high unemployment. This study uses a large panel household survey spanning a decade to find that old-age and disability grant recipients are less in employment as intended by the social program, consistent with the literature. The study adds to the literature by showing that, among “indirect recipients,” younger members typically have lower employment prospects than other indirect recipients. There could be various explanation for this finding, including that the youth are more discouraged from seeking jobs, face larger constraints in the labor market, or have less job opportunities.

South Africa --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Labor --- Demography --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Organizations: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Education: General --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Education --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Income --- National accounts --- International agencies --- Economic theory --- Population aging

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Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or “implicit anchor”, towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts by analysts, businesses and trade unions for South Africa, we find that inflation expectations have become increasingly strongly anchored. That is, the degree to which the estimated implicit anchor pins down inflation expectations at longer horizons has generally increased. Estimated inflation anchors of analysts lie within the 3–6 percent inflation target range of the central bank. However, the implicit anchors of businesses and trade unions, who are directly involved in the setting of wages and prices that drive the inflation process, have remained above the top end of the official target range. Possible explanations for these phenomena are discussed.

Monetary policy --- Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Inflation --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Forecasting --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining: General --- Monetary Policy --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Trade unions --- Monetary economics --- Economic Forecasting --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor unions --- Inflation targeting --- Economic forecasting --- Wage setting --- Prices --- Wages --- South Africa