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We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.

Externalities (Economics) --- Financial crises --- Business cycles --- Economic stabilization --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Costs, Social --- External economies and diseconomies --- External effects (Economics) --- Social costs --- Economics --- Public goods --- Waste (Economics) --- Welfare economics --- Ghana --- Economic policy. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Simulation Methods --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Africa --- Oceania --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Commodity Markets --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Credit --- Commodity price shocks --- Productivity --- Real effective exchange rates --- Money --- Prices --- Production --- Industrial productivity --- South Africa

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