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This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

Globalization. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economic history. --- Statistics. --- Econometrics. --- Economic growth. --- Emerging Markets/Globalization. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Economic History. --- Statistics for Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance. --- Economic Growth. --- Economics --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Statistical analysis --- Statistical data --- Statistical methods --- Statistical science --- Mathematics --- Econometrics --- Economic conditions --- History, Economic --- Markets. --- Statistics . --- Public markets --- Commerce --- Fairs --- Market towns --- Països emergents --- Creixement econòmic --- Condicions econòmiques --- Activitat econòmica --- Aspectes econòmics --- Condicions socioeconòmiques --- Situació econòmica --- Vida econòmica --- Cost de la vida --- Desenvolupament econòmic --- Anàlisi econòmica --- Desenvolupament humà (Sociologia) --- Política de desenvolupament --- Producte interior brut --- Producte nacional brut --- BRIC --- BRICS --- Nous països industrialitzats --- Noves economies industrials --- Països BRICS --- Països en vies de desenvolupament

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This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

Political philosophy. Social philosophy --- Statistical science --- International relations. Foreign policy --- Macroeconomics --- Quantitative methods (economics) --- Economic growth --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- Mathematical statistics --- Business economics --- World history --- composieten --- statistiek --- macro-economie --- economische groei --- economische geschiedenis --- globalisering --- econometrie

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Political philosophy. Social philosophy --- Statistical science --- International relations. Foreign policy --- Macroeconomics --- Quantitative methods (economics) --- Economic growth --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- Mathematical statistics --- Business economics --- World history --- composieten --- statistiek --- macro-economie --- economische groei --- economische geschiedenis --- globalisering --- econometrie

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A major shortcoming of the U.S. leading index is that it does not use the most recent information for stock prices and yield spreads. The index methodology ignores these data in favor of a time-consistent set of components (i.e., all of the components must refer to the previous month). An alternative is to bring the series with publication lags up-to-date with forecasts and create an index with a complete set of most recent components. This study uses tests of ex-ante predictive ability of the U.S. leading index to evaluate the gains to this new 'hot box' procedure of statistical imputation. We find that, across a variety of simple forecasting models, the new approach offers substantial improvements.

Economic forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Stock price forecasting