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Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets
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ISBN: 1462332544 1452708673 128355366X 9786613866110 1451988230 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.


Book
Bank Efficiency and Competition in Low-Income Countries : The Case of Uganda
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ISBN: 1462337716 1452772355 1283515180 9786613827630 1451907958 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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There is a concern that the state-dominated, inefficient, and fragile banking systems in many low-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are a major hindrance to economic growth. This paper systematically analyzes the impact of the far-reaching banking sector reforms undertaken in Uganda to improve competition and efficiency. Using models that have been previously used only in industrial countries, we find that the level of competition has increased significantly and has been associated with a rise in efficiency. Moreover, on average, larger banks and foreign-owned banks have become more efficient, while smaller banks have become less efficient in the face of increased competitive pressures.


Book
An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries
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ISBN: 1462388108 1452755159 1283515016 9786613827463 1451912986 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper evaluates monetary policy-tradeoffs in low-income countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated on data for Mozambique taking into account the sources of major exogenous shocks, and level of financial development. To our knowledge this is a first attempt at estimating a DSGE model for Sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa. Our simulations suggests that a exchange rate peg is significantly less successful than inflation targeting at stabilizing the real economy due to higher interest rate volatility, as in the literature for industrial countries and emerging markets.


Book
Global Commodity Prices, Monetary Transmission, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Pacific Islands
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ISBN: 1475585810 1475562195 Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Pacific Islands countries are vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and this poses challenges to monetary policy. The high degree of exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation and the weak monetary transmission mechanism in PICs suggest a greater efficacy of exchange rate changes in affecting inflation rather than monetary policy. To assess the tradeoff between the use of the exchange rate and monetary policy in macroeconomic stabilization, we employ a model-based approach to examine the optimal policy in response to the historical distribution of exogenous shocks in a Pacific Island (Tonga). The empirical evidence and model simulations tilt in the favor of exchange rate policy given the close relationship between exchange rate changes and headline inflation and the low interest rate sensitivity of aggregate demand.


Book
The ASEAN Way : Sustaining Growth and Stability
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ISBN: 1484355334 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN­5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

Keywords

Monetary policy --- Thailand


Book
The ASEAN Way.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9781484355336 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D. C. International Monetary Fund

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The ASEAN Way: Sustaining Growth and Stability.

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E-books


Book
An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1451918690 1282845292 9786612845291 1452702624 1451962320 1462353738 Year: 2010 Volume: WP/10/21 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with macrofinancial linkages. The model includes a financial accelerator--entrepreneurs are assumed to partially finance investment using domestic and foreign currency debt--to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to estimate the model using India data. The model is used to assess the importance of the financial accelerator in India and the optimality of monetary policy.


Book
Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462344747 1283511452 9786613823908 1451910495 Year: 2007 Volume: WP/07/32 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores the sources of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa by examining the relationship between inflation, the output gap, and the real money gap. Using heterogeneous panel cointegration estimation techniques, we estimate cointegrating vectors for the production function and the real money demand function to recover the structural output and money gaps for seventeen African countries. The central finding is that both gaps contain significant information regarding the evolution of inflation, albeit with a larger role played by the money gap. There is no significant evidence of asymmetry in the relationship.


Book
Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462337449 1462301118 1283552809 9786613865250 1455224022 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation targeting rule can reduce macroeconomic volatility and anchor inflationary expectations given the size and type of shocks faced by the economy. Sri Lanka could aim to target a broad inflation range initially due to its susceptibility supply-side shocks while enhancing exchange rate flexibility and strengthening the effectiveness of monetary policy in the transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime.


Book
Capital Flows, Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1498307817 1498356915 1498377122 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies in emerging Asia. The key result is that macro-prudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability for business cycle fluctuations as well as the role of supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks.

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