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This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Bond yields --- Sovereign bonds --- Securities markets --- Yield curve --- Currencies --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Money --- Bonds --- Capital market --- Interest rates --- Turkey
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There is a concern that the state-dominated, inefficient, and fragile banking systems in many low-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are a major hindrance to economic growth. This paper systematically analyzes the impact of the far-reaching banking sector reforms undertaken in Uganda to improve competition and efficiency. Using models that have been previously used only in industrial countries, we find that the level of competition has increased significantly and has been associated with a rise in efficiency. Moreover, on average, larger banks and foreign-owned banks have become more efficient, while smaller banks have become less efficient in the face of increased competitive pressures.
Banks and banking -- Uganda. --- Uganda -- Economic policy. --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banking --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Commercial banks --- Competition --- Loans --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Banks and banking --- Government securities --- Uganda
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This paper evaluates monetary policy-tradeoffs in low-income countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated on data for Mozambique taking into account the sources of major exogenous shocks, and level of financial development. To our knowledge this is a first attempt at estimating a DSGE model for Sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa. Our simulations suggests that a exchange rate peg is significantly less successful than inflation targeting at stabilizing the real economy due to higher interest rate volatility, as in the literature for industrial countries and emerging markets.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Inflation targeting --- Exchange rates --- Open market operations --- Monetary base --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Money supply --- Mozambique, Republic of
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Pacific Islands countries are vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and this poses challenges to monetary policy. The high degree of exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation and the weak monetary transmission mechanism in PICs suggest a greater efficacy of exchange rate changes in affecting inflation rather than monetary policy. To assess the tradeoff between the use of the exchange rate and monetary policy in macroeconomic stabilization, we employ a model-based approach to examine the optimal policy in response to the historical distribution of exogenous shocks in a Pacific Island (Tonga). The empirical evidence and model simulations tilt in the favor of exchange rate policy given the close relationship between exchange rate changes and headline inflation and the low interest rate sensitivity of aggregate demand.
Foreign exchange rates --- Commercial products --- Monetary policy --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Commodities --- Economic goods --- Merchandise --- Products, Commercial --- Commodity exchanges --- Manufactures --- Substitute products --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Contracting out --- Rates --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Commodity Markets --- Currency --- Commodity prices --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Prices --- Tonga
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The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
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The ASEAN Way: Sustaining Growth and Stability.
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This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with macrofinancial linkages. The model includes a financial accelerator--entrepreneurs are assumed to partially finance investment using domestic and foreign currency debt--to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to estimate the model using India data. The model is used to assess the importance of the financial accelerator in India and the optimality of monetary policy.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Banks and banking, Central --- Econometric models. --- Banker's banks --- Banks, Central --- Central banking --- Central banks --- Monetary management --- Banks and banking --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Investments: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Labor Demand --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Self-employment --- Exchange rates --- Consumption --- Depreciation --- Prices --- National accounts --- Self-employed --- Economics --- Saving and investment --- India
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This paper explores the sources of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa by examining the relationship between inflation, the output gap, and the real money gap. Using heterogeneous panel cointegration estimation techniques, we estimate cointegrating vectors for the production function and the real money demand function to recover the structural output and money gaps for seventeen African countries. The central finding is that both gaps contain significant information regarding the evolution of inflation, albeit with a larger role played by the money gap. There is no significant evidence of asymmetry in the relationship.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Estimation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Output gap --- Demand for money --- Potential output --- Estimation techniques --- Production --- Prices --- Money --- Econometric analysis --- Economic theory --- Econometric models --- Uganda
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This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation targeting rule can reduce macroeconomic volatility and anchor inflationary expectations given the size and type of shocks faced by the economy. Sri Lanka could aim to target a broad inflation range initially due to its susceptibility supply-side shocks while enhancing exchange rate flexibility and strengthening the effectiveness of monetary policy in the transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime.
Inflation targeting --- Economic forecasting --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Targeting, Inflation --- Monetary policy --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Output gap --- Prices --- Production --- Economic theory --- Sri Lanka
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This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies in emerging Asia. The key result is that macro-prudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability for business cycle fluctuations as well as the role of supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks.
Econometric models. --- Banks and banking --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Econometrics --- Mathematical models --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Monetary economics --- Financial services law & regulation --- International economics --- Macroprudential policy --- Credit --- Capital adequacy requirements --- Capital flows --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Balance of payments --- Capital inflows --- Economic policy --- Asset requirements --- Capital movements --- China, People's Republic of
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