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This paper examines the extent to which developing countries benefit from intersectoral factor transfers by specifying the impact and determinants of sectoral changes and of the degree of dualism (or allocation inefficiency) in a dual economy model. Conditions under which factor reallocation is growth-enhancing are derived. An empirical error-correction equation is estimated for 30 developing countries during 1965-80. Results suggest that labor reallocation effects are especially important in countries with high rates of investment (and thus high rates of labor transfer) and/or at low levels of development (and thus high degrees of dualism).
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Labor productivity --- Public expenditure review --- Human capital --- Capital productivity --- Production --- Expenditure --- Labor economics --- Expenditures, Public --- South Africa
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This paper provides empirical support for the view that enhanced economic security fosters private investment and growth in developing countries. An analysis for 53 developing countries suggests that most aspects of economic security have improved since the mid-1980s; that private investment is mostly influenced by the risk of expropriation, the degree of civil liberty, and the degree of independence of the bureaucracy; and that economic growth is affected by the risk of expropriation and political terrorism in the short run, and by corruption and contract repudiation in the long run.
Investments: General --- Public Finance --- Criminology --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Public finance & taxation --- Private investment --- Securities --- Public investment spending --- Return on investment --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Crime --- Expenditure --- Saving and investment --- Financial instruments --- Public investments --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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This study seeks to explain economic growth differences in an aggregate production function framework, where labor reallocation from agriculture to modern sectors influences labor efficiency growth. The econometric analysis uses a panel of 65 countries over 1960-90. The results highlight: (a) the differences in labor reallocation impact on growth, controlled for using the intersectoral wedge in labor productivities; (b) the significance of labor reallocation effects, even after controlling for capital accumulation, initial conditions, and country effects; (c) the role of slow labor reallocation in explaining the dummy variable for Sub-Saharan Africa; (d) the role of initial education levels in explaining differences in labor reallocation rates.
Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Industrialization --- Manufacturing and Service Industries --- Choice of Technology --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Education: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Labor --- Public expenditure review --- Labor productivity --- Capital accumulation --- Expenditure --- Production --- National accounts --- Labor economics --- Expenditures, Public --- Saving and investment --- Indonesia
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This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate), adequacy of reserves, dollarization (currency substitution), exchange rate risk exposure, and some traditional optimal currency area criteria, in particular capital mobility, on exchange rate regime selection.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Development: General --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial services law & regulation --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate risk --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial risk management --- United States
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This paper assesses the effects of India's tax system on growth, through the level and productivity of private investment. Comparison of India's indicators of effective tax rates and tax revenue productivity with other countries shows that the Indian tax system is characterized by: (1) a high dependence on indirect taxes, (2) low average effective tax rates and tax productivity, and (3) high marginal effective tax rates and large tax-induced distortions on investment and financing decisions. The paper finds that the most recently proposed package of reforms would improve tax productivity and lower the marginal tax burden and tax-induced distortions. But firms that rely on internal sources of funds or face problems borrowing would continue to face high marginal tax rates.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Taxation -- India. --- Taxation -- Law and legislation -- India. --- Law - Non-U.S. --- Law, Politics & Government --- Law - Africa, Asia, Pacific & Antarctica --- Taxation --- Law and legislation --- Public Finance --- Corporate Taxation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate & business tax --- Corporate income tax --- Income and capital gains taxes --- Consumption taxes --- Revenue administration --- Income tax systems --- Corporations --- Income tax --- Spendings tax --- Revenue --- India
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India's planned pension reform will set up a proper regulatory framework for the pension industry and open up the sector to private fund managers. Drawing on international experiences, the paper highlights pre-conditions for the reform to kick-start financial development, including: (i) the buildup of critical mass; (ii) sufficiently flexible investment guidelines and regulations, including on investments abroad; and (iii) concurrent reforms in capital markets. Given the limited scale of the planned reform, the key challenge for India is to achieve sufficient critical mass early on. Options to address this challenge include granting permission for existing workers to switch to the new system or outsourcing all or part of the reserves of private sector provident funds to the new pension fund managers.
Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Pensions --- Investment & securities --- Pension spending --- Pension reform --- Corporate bonds --- Securities --- Bonds --- Financial instruments --- India --- Capital market --- Monetary policy --- Econometric models.
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For a sample of 83 financial institutions during 2003–2011, this paper attempts to answer three questions: first, what is the evolution of banks’ stock price exposure to country-level and global risk factors as approximated by equity indices; second, which bank-specific characteristics explain these risk exposures; third, are there clusters of banks with equity price linkages beyond market risk factors. The paper finds a rise in sensitivities to both country and global risk factors in 2011, although on average to levels still below those of the subprime crisis. The average sensitivity to European risk, specifically, has been steadily rising since 2008. Banks that are reliant on wholesale funding, have weaker capital levels and low valuations, and higher exposures to crisis countries are found to be the most vulnerable to shocks. The analysis of bank-to-bank linkages suggests that any “globalization” of the euro area crisis is likely to be channelled through U.K. and U.S. banks, with little evidence of direct spillover effects to other regions.
Risk management. --- Capital movements. --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Insurance --- Management --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- International Financial Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Crises --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Externalities --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Financial crises --- Stocks --- Spillovers --- Stock markets --- Financial institutions --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial markets --- Capital adequacy requirements --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Banks and banking --- Stock exchanges --- Asset requirements --- United States
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This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.
Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Development: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Trade: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Estimation --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Exports --- Debt burden --- Fiscal stance --- Debt service --- Estimation techniques --- International trade --- External debt --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, External --- Econometric models --- Yemen, Republic of
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This paper investigates the channels through which debt affects growth, specifically whether debt affects growth through factor accumulation or total factor productivity growth. It also tests for the presence of nonlinearities in the effects of debt on the different sources of growth. We use a large panel dataset of 61 developing countries over the period 1969-98. Results indicate that the negative impact of high debt on growth operates both through a strong negative effect on physical capital accumulation and on total factor productivity growth. On average, for high-debt countries, doubling debt will reduce output growth by about 1 percentage point and reduce both per capita physical capital and total factor productivity growth by somewhat less than that. In terms of the contributions to growth, approximately one-third of the effect of debt on growth occurs via physical capital accumulation and two-thirds via total factor productivity growth. The results are generally robust to the use of alternative estimators to control (to different extents) for biases associated with unobserved country-specific effects and the endogeneity of several regressors, particularly the debt variables. In particular, the results are shown to be compatible with a simultaneous significant effect of growth on debt ratios, as suggested by Easterly (2001).
Investments: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Development: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Labour --- income economics --- Total factor productivity --- Productivity --- Human capital --- Capital accumulation --- Production growth --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Saving and investment --- Economic theory --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.
Economic development --- Financial crises --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Externalities --- Financial Crises --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Spillovers --- Exports --- Negative spillovers --- Production growth --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International trade --- Production --- International finance --- Economic theory --- Germany
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