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"An unforeseen event may be defined as something that happens suddenly and unexpectedly. Such events are seldom the result of an organisation's operational planning, but they can be side-effects of such planning. An unforeseen event may have either positive or negative consequences. This chapter aims to discuss if it is possible to prevent unforeseen events. The major focus is on analysis and prevention of unforeseen events with negative consequences, such as accidents, catastrophes and acts of terror. Such events often take place in complex systems, and failures of appropriate organisational interaction and communication among participants with complementary competence in such systems may contribute to unforeseen events. Risk-analysis methods and tools based on energy-barrier models, causal sequence and process models, as well as information-processing models are presented and their applicability to the prevention of unforeseen events is discussed. This also includes the Bow-tie approach, as well as other approaches which take into consideration organisational factors and social interaction (samhandling). The conclusion is that unforeseen events can be prevented. However, in the aftermath of the implementation of safety and security measures, it is not possible to know which events they prevented, or to obtain knowledge about their efficiency. An additional strategy for prevention of unforeseen events with negative consequences is proposed.".

Armed Forces --- Political activity.

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"This study examines self-assessment of preparedness for unforeseen events and how it varies between groups and individuals according to roles and functions within an organization. The study has two objectives. The first is to analyse the relationship between general self-efficacy, perceived competence in demanding situations and social support, and based on this, to assess the efficiency of interaction (samhandling) in organizations and preparedness for the unforeseen. The second aim is to examine how these factors vary according to professional experience. A survey questionnaire was completed during winter 2016/2017. All 624 respondents were male or female employees of the Norwegian Armed Forces, based in different units, with different levels of competence, and included commissioned and non-commissioned officers, officer cadets and conscripts. The response rate was 77 percent, and a total of 810 personnel were approached. This study incorporates central concepts of individual and social resources that could permit the prediction and understanding of resilient behaviors in complex and demanding situations. Interaction was found to be the most important predictor of preparedness for the unforeseen. This study also shows that interaction combined with general self-efficacy and social support can account for a considerable proportion of the variance in preparedness for the unforeseen. The results indicate that it is possible to prepare for unforeseen events by implementing measures that improve social factors in particular.".

Organizational learning. --- Communities of practice.