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This paper finds that the estimates of Armington elasticities (the elasticity of substitution between groups of products identified by country of origin) obtained from multilateral trade data can differ from those obtained from bilateral trade data. In particular, the former tends to be higher than the latter when trade consists largely of intermediate inputs. Given that the variety of intermediate inputs traded across borders is increasing rapidly, and that the effect of this increase is not adequately captured in multilateral trade data, the evidence shows that the use of multilateral trade data to estimate Armington elasticities needs caution.
Elasticity (Economics) --- Commercial policy --- International trade --- Foreign trade policy --- International trade policy --- Trade policy --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Coefficient of elasticity --- Demand elasticity --- Elasticity, Coefficient of --- Elasticity of demand --- Price elasticity of demand --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Agriculture: General --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Investment & securities --- Manufacturing --- Agricultural commodities --- Multilateral trade --- Plurilateral trade --- Imports --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- Farm produce --- United States
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This paper compares two alternative measures of technology differences across industrial countries during 1970-92: one measures differences in labor productivity (the Ricardian measure), and the other differences in total factor productivity (the Hicksian measure). The distinction between the two measures is important to the extent that trade patterns are inconsistent with comparative advantage revealed by the Hicksian measure, but not necessarily with that by the Ricardian measure. The distinction becomes more important in the period with high capital mobility across countries.
Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- International economics --- Technology --- general issues --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Comparative advantage --- Manufacturing --- Labor costs --- Trade balance --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- Balance of trade --- United States
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This paper explores the effect of trade on the relative wage of less-skilled labor through its effect on world prices, which are typically exogenously given under the small open economy assumption. Using the 1995 international input-output data for APEC member countries, we numerically simulate a general equilibrium model to study the effects of abolishing existing tariffs under the assumption that each member country is large enough to affect the prices of goods and services produced in the region. We find that the responsiveness of prices plays an important role in easing a possible adverse effect of trade on relative wages.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Equilibrium (Economics) -- Econometric models. --- International trade -- Econometric models. --- Prices -- Econometric models. --- Wages -- Econometric models. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- International trade --- Prices --- Wages --- Econometric models. --- Compensation --- Departmental salaries --- Earnings --- Pay --- Remuneration --- Salaries --- Wage-fund --- Wage rates --- Working class --- Income --- Labor costs --- Compensation management --- Cost and standard of living --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Taxation --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade and Labor Market Interactions --- Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Trade: General --- Professional Labor Markets --- Occupational Licensing --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Imports --- Skilled labor --- Wage gap --- Taxes --- Tariff --- Labor market --- United States
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A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The "diamond rule" proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on debt and annual benchmark limits on NDF, expenditure growth, and nonconcessional external financing. This rule would provide flexibility for countercyclical policy and help define the fiscal space for infrastructure spending that is consistent with longrun fiscal sustainability. An illustrative simulation shows that Tanzania has considerable fiscal space for development spending.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economic development --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public debt --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal rules --- Expenditure --- Budget planning and preparation --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Budget --- Tanzania, United Republic of
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A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this period. One view argues that the so-called "divine wind" or exogenous external demand boosted Japanese exports. The other view emphasizes the role of supply factors such as productivity gains, materialized after long-fought restructuring efforts during the lost decade. Estimating the firm-level export function allows us to assess the relative importance of these demand and supply factors. Evidence shows that firms' efforts were more important than the divine wind.
Exports --- Japan --- Economic conditions --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Production and Operations Management --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Trade: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities: General --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Total factor productivity --- Export performance --- Productivity --- Transportation --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Saving and investment --- China, People's Republic of
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A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this period. One view argues that the so-called "divine wind" or exogenous external demand boosted Japanese exports. The other view emphasizes the role of supply factors such as productivity gains, materialized after long-fought restructuring efforts during the lost decade. Estimating the firm-level export function allows us to assess the relative importance of these demand and supply factors. Evidence shows that firms' efforts were more important than the divine wind.
Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Exports --- Industrial productivity --- International trade
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Global merchandise trade sharply declined in late 2008 and early 2009, and some press and financial market reports assigned a large role for the decline to trade finance. However, the available evidence suggests that shocks to trade finance were not the major factor in the decline in trade. Surveys of commercial banks by the IMF and others found that while bank-intermediated trade finance fell in value during the crisis, it fell by less than merchandise trade. As a result, the share of world trade supported by bank-intermediated trade finance increased despite higher pricing margins. Other explanations appear to account for the bulk of the reduction in international trade.
Exports --- Financial crises --- Export financing --- Finance. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- International economics --- Banking --- Financial services law & regulation --- Trade finance --- Export credits --- Trade in goods --- International trade --- Basel II --- Financial regulation and supervision --- International finance --- Banks and banking --- Export credit --- Balance of trade --- State supervision --- United States
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The pace of trade reforms waned from the mid-2000s as protectionist sentiment began to increase. With the onset of the global financial crisis, reform progress not only halted but began to reverse. As we show in this note, new trade restrictions have had—in the limited products they targeted—a strong negative impact on trade. The aggregate impact of new restrictions is modest, at about 0.25 percent of global trade, as most countries have resisted a widespread resort to protectionism. Looking ahead, however, in 2010 sustained high unemployment, uneven growth, and an unwinding of government stimulus measures suggest that protectionist pressures may rise. Gaps in World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments leave ample scope to further restrict trade, so unless all countries vigorously resist protectionism this could threaten the economic recovery and drag down future growth. Continuing and further enhancing the monitoring of all protectionist measures and maintaining the high-level political awareness of the associated macroeconomic risks will help. But the surest way to avoid such a downside scenario is to tighten multilateral trade commitments by completing the WTO Doha Round. This can be viewed as a key part of the exit strategy from the global economic crisis.
Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- International Economic Order and Integration --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Trade barriers --- Protectionism --- Trade balance --- Tariffs --- Trade policy --- International trade --- Trade finance --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- Tariff --- International finance --- United States
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With global supply chains, any value added or production task can be traded as part of goods. This means that competitiveness can be measured either in terms of “tasks” (Bems and Johnson, 2012), or goods, but with goods prices reflecting the cost of tasks embedded in those goods. We show that when measuring competitiveness in goods, the formula used in computing the real effective exchange rates at the IMF (Bayoumi, Lee, and Jayanthi, 2005) needs to be expressed in terms of the price of value added and needs an additional term, which captures a gain or loss in competitiveness of goods due to outsourcing.
Trade regulation. --- Competition. --- Competition --- Competition (Economics) --- Competitiveness (Economics) --- Economic competition --- Commerce --- Conglomerate corporations --- Covenants not to compete --- Industrial concentration --- Monopolies --- Open price system --- Supply and demand --- Trusts, Industrial --- Regulation of trade --- Regulatory reform --- Trade regulation --- Commercial law --- Consumer protection --- Deregulation --- Economic aspects --- Law and legislation --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Taxation --- Trade: General --- International Finance: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exports --- Production sharing --- Exchange rates --- International trade --- Financial markets --- Taxes --- Oil and gas leases --- China, People's Republic of
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We examine the role of household financial access in determining the extent of risksharing in Nigeria using household-level panel data. We estimate changes in the response of consumption to shocks for households with formal and informal access to finance and those without, both for the country as a whole and for different regions. Our findings suggest that households with financial access who experience an unexpected negative income shock see consumption fall by 15 percentage points less than those without access. This result is mainly driven by households with informal financial access, and by household savings rather than borrowing. Regional variation in risk sharing tends to be significant, suggesting that financial inclusion efforts going forward should have a more regional focus.
Consumption (Economics) --- Financial services industry --- Services, Financial --- Service industries --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Finance: General --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banking --- Finance --- Consumption --- Household consumption --- Income shocks --- Income --- National accounts --- Financial inclusion --- Financial markets --- Economics --- Banks and banking --- Nigeria
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