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Existing work on China's economic influence in Africa refers to Africa in broad terms, thereby generalizing the results to an extent that is unhelpful for policy-makers in a specific country. Moreover, the emphasis is on oil exporters. This paper remedies this by focusing on a single, oil-importing country: Kenya. The paper examines China's economic presence in Kenya and some of the popular myths surrounding Chinese economic activity. The first myth is that Chinese companies do not employ local workers. In fact, 78 percent of full-time and 95 percent of part-time employees in Chinese companies are locals. Second, although China represents a large potential market for local exporters, the study finds that China has a better chance of expanding its exports to Kenya than Kenya does to China based on existing specializations. This may change with recent oil discoveries in Kenya, increasing the space for Kenyan exports to China, as well as from China's shift to a consumption-driven economy which will increase demand for services, a growing strength of Kenya's economy (World Bank Country Economic Memorandum 2016). The paper emphasizes that Kenyan policy makers should be less concerned about bilateral trade imbalances and worry about Kenya's overall trade balance. However, the Standard Gauge Railway and Thika superhighway experiences suggest that Chinese firms offer relatively few technology transfer or supplier opportunities for local firms and academia. Third, the popular focus of Chinese competition is on the impact on well-organized Kenyan producers and not on consumers, thereby underestimating the benefits Kenyan consumer derive from the availability of more affordable Chinese goods. The paper concludes with policy directions for improving export competitiveness and transparency in infrastructure projects, and local content.

Foreign Aid --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Trade Imbalance

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This paper uses the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate growth in and levels of subnational 2013 gross domestic product for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational gross domestic product is consequential for three reasons. First, there is strong policy interest in how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, subnational entities want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national gross domestic product. Third, such information could help private investors to assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new and more accurate estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However, the approach may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit notably agriculture. For Kenya, the results of the analysis affirm that Nairobi County is the largest contributor to national gross domestic product. However, at 13 percent, this contribution is lower than commonly thought. For Rwanda, the three districts of Kigali account for 40 percent of national gross domestic product, underscoring the lower scale of economic activity in the rest of the country. To get a composite picture of subnational economic activity, especially in the context of rapidly improving official statistics in Kenya and Rwanda, it is important to estimate subnational gross domestic product using standard approaches (production, expenditure, income).

Agricultural output --- Agricultural performance --- Agricultural sector --- Agriculture --- Annual growth --- Annual growth rate --- Cities --- City --- Coefficients --- Consumption --- Criteria --- Development indicators --- Development policy --- Diseconomies of scale --- Distribution of income --- District --- District administrations --- District level --- District-level --- Economic activity --- Economic decline --- Economic downturns --- Economic growth --- Economic theory & research --- Economics --- Elasticity --- Empirical model --- Estimation method --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal management --- Fixed effects --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Gross domestic product --- Growth --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Household surveys --- Incentives --- Incidence of poverty --- Indicators --- Informal economy --- Inputs --- Long-term growth --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- National poverty line --- Policy research --- Poverty --- Poverty impact evaluation --- Poverty levels --- Poverty line --- Poverty reduction --- Pro-poor growth --- Provinces --- Real GDP --- Resource allocation --- Revenue --- Revenue allocation --- Revenue sharing --- Revenue sharing formula --- Revenue-raising capacity --- Subnational entities --- Subnational governments --- Subnational unit --- Surveys --- Tax --- Underestimates --- Urban areas --- Wealth

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Growing informal employment in Russia raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, productivity, and social protection. Cutting through various data and definitions, this report finds one consistent outcome: informal employment is on the rise. As of 2016, Russia's informal employment was estimated to range between 15.1 and 21.2 percent. The fiscal loss of underpayment by informal workers is estimated at between 1 to 2.3 percent of GDP. However, Russia's share of informal employment is not that high when compared to other middle-income countries. In fact, countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkey, who have a similar GDP per capita as Russia, exhibit higher informal employment rates - 30 and 33 percent, respectively. Informal employment is a pervasive phenomenon in Russian labor markets, and its growth cannot be solely attributed to changes in the sectoral or demographic composition of the labor force. Rather, informality appears to have been growing across all sectors and particularly among workers without at least some tertiary education. Migrants tend to be more informal: the 2016 share of informal migrant workers (only partially captured in the surveys) was 26.2 percent, versus 15.7 percent of Russian workers. The increase in informality is attributed mainly to the lack of formal job creation, which in recent years, was close to zero. The report focuses on three aspects that affect informality: labor market regulations; taxes and benefits; and labor mobility.

Job Creation --- Labor Market --- Labor Policy --- Minimum Wage

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As globalization has intensified, multinational enterprises' investments have become a sophisticated set of financial transactions that are difficult to monitor and classify by the home and host countries. In some cases, what is classified as foreign direct investment is rather "indirect foreign direct investment," channeled through a third country. Indirect flows have increased significantly in recent years, now accounting for almost 30 percent of global foreign direct investment flows. Indirect foreign direct investment flows also capture the flow of domestic funds channeled through offshore centers back to the local economy in the form of direct investment, also known as "foreign direct investment round tripping." These investments do not offer the benefits of typical foreign direct investment, and may lead to tax revenue and welfare losses. Round tripping is mostly channeled through offshore financial or transshipping centers. In most cases, domestic companies round trip their investments to benefit from preferential treatments reserved for certain countries and their firms. The most important policy measure to reduce round tripping activity and mitigate its impact is to improve the business environment for all firms; this can foster domestic and foreign investment, and may, to some extent, also curb foreign direct investment round tripping. Nevertheless, countries also need to adapt to the new playing field for foreign direct investment, and recognize the trade-offs of their national policies on capital flows. National policy measures must be complemented by international actions. At the same time, all indirect foreign direct investment flows should be closely monitored, something that is best conducted in coordination with international partners.

Bilateral Investment Treaty --- DFI --- FDI --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Investment

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The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic crisis combines the worst characteristics of previous crises. It features a simultaneous supply and demand shock; domestic, regional, and global scope; a projected long duration; and a high degree of uncertainty. What can be expected for recovery from the pandemic crisis across the world? This brief first assesses the projections of economic activity in 2020 and 2021 and the domestic and international conditions that will constrain and drive a possible recovery. It then discusses the potential shapes of the recovery (or lack thereof) for specific country conditions. Finally, it explores the need to balance short-term and long-term concerns, arguing in favor of policies that focus on sustained recovery, rather than quick but debt-fueled and short-lived gains. Drawing on the lessons from past crises, the brief concludes that sustained economic recovery is possible only when the underlying causes are addressed and the foundations of growth are protected. For the pandemic crisis, this implies mitigating the spread of the disease to manageable levels while keeping the economy sufficiently active. In the short term, economic policy should focus on preventing further poverty, averting unnecessary business closures, and avoiding lasting damage to human capital and productivity. In the long term, policy reform should address the structural vulnerabilities that the pandemic crisis has exposed. This includes reforms to expand labor and business formalization; to improve the coverage and adequacy of social protection; to extend financial inclusion to elderly, rural, and poor people; to promote digital transformation across society; and, most basically, to improve access to and quality of public health care.

Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Economic Conditions and Volatility --- Economic Growth --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth