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This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.

Saudi Arabia --- Arabia saudita --- ʻArabīyah as Saʻūdīyah --- ʻArav ha-Saʻudit --- Hejaz and Nejd --- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia --- Mamlaka al-ʻArabiya as-Saʻudiya --- Mamlakah al-ʻArabīyah al-Saʻūdīyah --- Reino de Arabia Saudi --- Saudiarabien --- Saudovskai︠a︡ Aravii︠a︡ --- Sauji Arabia --- Saujiarabia --- Sha-tʻse A-la-po --- ערב הסעודית‏ --- サウディ・アラビア --- サウジアラビア --- Hejaz (Kingdom) --- Economic conditions --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Externalities --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Yield curve --- Sovereign bonds --- Oil prices --- Spillovers --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Stock exchanges --- Interest rates --- Bonds --- International finance

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Saudi's Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis.

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Using a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk in turn predict future downside risks to economic growth and financial crises. We further investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that tightening macroprudential policy is the most effective across both short and longer horizons, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces short term downside risks only in advanced economies.

Finance: General --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Hypothesis Testing --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial markets --- Money --- Saving and investment --- Economic policy --- Financial services industry --- Credit --- United States

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Using a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk in turn predict future downside risks to economic growth and financial crises. We further investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that tightening macroprudential policy is the most effective across both short and longer horizons, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces short term downside risks only in advanced economies.

Finance: General --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Hypothesis Testing --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial markets --- Money --- Saving and investment --- Economic policy --- Financial services industry --- Credit --- United States

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Using a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk in turn predict future downside risks to economic growth and financial crises. We further investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that tightening macroprudential policy is the most effective across both short and longer horizons, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces short term downside risks only in advanced economies.

United States