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Growth and Reforms in Latin America : A Survey of Facts and Arguments
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ISBN: 1451864701 1462318525 1451909233 9786613825513 1452736014 1283513064 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents a number of facts about growth in Latin America, and shows how critical correlates of growth have evolved over time. In comparison with other regions, Latin America has consistently exhibited higher macroeconomic volatility, lower openness, and higher income inequality, though openness and macroeconomic stability have improved since the early 1990s. The paper then discusses three views of why reforms have not led to higher growth in Latin America: that reforms have gone too far; that reforms have not gone far enough; and that reforms have missed the point.


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EMU and Long Interest Rates in Germany
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ISBN: 146231256X 1455285862 1282003348 9786613795625 1455231266 Year: 1996 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The presence of an “EMU premium” in German long rates is tested by examining the co-movement of German and other European yields, as well as the exchange rate of the private ECU, in reaction to EMU-related events. If German yields incorporate an “EMU premium” while other European currencies expect lower interest rates from EMU, then German and other European long yields should react in opposite directions to events affecting the probability of EMU. In fact, they typically react in the same direction. Similarly, events which lead to an appreciation of the private ECU are associated with a decline in German yields.


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The Impact of Monetary Policyon the Exchange Rate : Evidence From Three Small Open Economies
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ISBN: 1462349897 1452773424 1282109367 1451901356 9786613802255 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies the impact effect of monetary policy shocks—identified by the reaction of three month market interest rates to policy announcements—on the exchange rate in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand during the 1990s. The main results are that (1) on average, a 100 basis point contractionary shock will appreciate the exchange rate by 2-3 percent on impact; (ii) seemingly “perverse” reactions of the exchange rate to monetary policy are mainly attributable to reverse causality; (iii) in a few instances, there were true “perverse” reactions of exchange rates to policy— generally, appreciations following expansionary shocks.


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The Impact of Monetary Policyon the Bilateral Exchange Rate : Chile Versus the United States
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ISBN: 1462323766 1452758336 1281602663 1451895771 9786613783356 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the reaction of the bilateral Ch$/US$ exchange rate to monetary policy actions in Chile and the United States. The approach is to regress the change in the exchange rate following a policy announcement on changes in market interest rates in response to the same announcement. U.S. monetary policy actions that raise the three-month treasury bill rate by 1 percentage point lead to depreciations of the Chilean peso by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The exchange rate also reacts to monetary policy actions in Chile, but the response appears to be smaller, and cannot be estimated with much precision on the available sample.


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The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
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ISBN: 1462310540 1452718946 1282010891 9786613795823 1451900686 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.


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EMU and long interest rates in Germany
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Year: 1996 Publisher: Washington, D.C. IMF

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Fiscal Positions in Latin America : Have They Really Improved?
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ISBN: 1462363873 1451986289 1451869967 9786612840890 1282840894 1451914490 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/137 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.

Debt defaults and lessons from a decade of crises
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ISBN: 0262195534 9786612098093 0262284545 1282098098 1429460911 9780262284547 9781282098091 9781429460910 9780262195539 Year: 2006 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press,

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Providing case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises, this work examines the facts, economic theory, and policy implications of sovereign debt crises.


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Facing up to low productivity growth
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ISBN: 9780881327328 0881327328 9780881327311 088132731X Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, DC : Peterson Institute for International Economics,

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This volume analyze the impact of sustained lower productivity growth on public finances, social protection, trade, capital flows, wages, and inequality. It concludes that slow productivity growth could aggravate inequality and increase concentration of market power and also proposes ways that countries can cope with these consequences.


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Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns : A History of Ideas, 1976-2001
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ISBN: 146238420X 145270077X 1282012045 9786613795991 1451900724 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper describes the evolution of ideas to apply bankruptcy reorganization principles to sovereign debt crises. Our focus is on policy proposals between the late 1970s and Anne Krueger's (2001) proposed "Sovereign Debt-Restructuring Mechanism," with brief reference to the economics literature on sovereign debt. We describe the perceived inefficiencies that motivate proposals, and how proposals seek to change debtor and creditor incentives. We find that there has been a moving concensus on what constitutes the underlying problem, but not on how to fix it. The range of proposed approaches remains broad and only recently shows some signs of narrowing.

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