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Since 2011, Yemen has suffered a series of crises resulting in the ongoing war which began in March 2015 and which has had major economic consequences. Trade has been badly affected by the war. The Yemeni financial sector faces problems of liquidity, solvency and foreign exchange access. The construction sector is historically an important sector in Yemen and should play a major role in recovery.The Government of Yemen and donors should take immediate steps tosupport the private sector.The year 2011 represented a series of political, social, and economic crises,culminating in the war that started in March 2015, which continue to reverberate throughout Yemen today. Effective reconstruction and recovery demands an understanding of the socio-economic drivers of resilience and recovery in Yemen, including the private sector. The private sector, including micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that are prevalent in Yemen, is a major source of employment and provider of basic goods and services, making it an important part of socio-economic resilience and recovery. The capacity oftrade, financial, construction, and agricultural sectors will be of particular importancefor recovery and reconstruction. This note will discuss both conflict related and key systemic constraintson the private sector and priorities for supporting resilience and recovery.It will focus on the private enterprise in sectors that are key to resilience and recovery:trade, construction, finance, and agriculture. It will present immediate and short-term investment and policy recommendationsto support the recovery and stabilization needs of private sector operations during and following the end of the conflict.

Conflict and Development

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The welfare impact of a disaster does not depend only on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Depending on the ability of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct, the reconstruction will be more or less difficult, and the welfare effects smaller or larger. This ability, which can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience of the economy to natural disasters, is an important parameter to estimate the overall vulnerability of a population. Here, resilience is decomposed into two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of the immediate loss of income for a given amount of capital losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover quickly. The paper proposes a rule of thumb to estimate macroeconomic resilience, based on the interest rate (a higher interest rate decreases resilience and increases welfare losses), the reconstruction duration (a longer reconstruction duration increases welfare losses), and a "ripple-effect" factor that increases or decreases immediate losses (negative if enough idle resources are available to cope; positive if cross-sector and supply-chain issues impair the production of non-affected capital). An optimal risk management strategy is very likely to include measures to reduce direct impacts (disaster risk reduction actions) and measures to reduce indirect impacts (resilience building actions).

Conflict and Development --- Environment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Urban Development

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This policy note was prepared in parallel to the report Pakistan at 100 - Shaping the Future. The report Pakistan at 100 discusses options to accelerate and sustain growth in Pakistan so that the country becomes an upper middle-income country when it turns 100 years old in 2047. This policy note discusses inequality of opportunities women face in Pakistan. Excluding women from the labor force means that a large share of Pakistan's greatest asset, its population, is being wasted.

Conflict --- Conflict and Development --- Equity --- Inequality --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction

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This paper presents empirical evidence of the profound and long-term damages from adverse natural events on poverty. It analyzes 30 years of macro-level damage data from disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and storms), according to income groups, and shows that low-income countries incur disproportionately large damages relative to their assets. Furthermore, the paper reviews the micro-level evidence of disaster impacts on the livelihoods of the poorest households. The evidence suggests that the poor are significantly more vulnerable and exposed to the economic and human capital losses caused by disasters. It discusses detrimental long-term consequences for the income and welfare of the poor and the presence of poverty traps that result from damages to productive assets, health, and education. The roles of migration and ex-ante behavior are also discussed. In the context of climate change, the paper underscores the importance of considering the detrimental impacts of smaller but repeated crises, for instance caused by changes in local precipitation patterns. Lastly, the paper offers a brief discussion of policy options for strengthening resilience and highlights the need for further research for understanding the complex direct and indirect effects of disasters on the poor.

Conflict and Development --- Disasters --- Human Capital --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Resilience

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Senegal is located in the Sahel region of West Africa. Between 1970 and 2000, the country suffered prolonged droughts that contributed to rural exodus. Communities in these peri-urban areas, already among the poorest in the country, are the most vulnerable to episodes of heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding. The impact of floods in this situation of uncontrolled urban growth is exacerbated by the lack of a functional storm water drainage system, ineffective land-use policies and non-compliance with the urban planning and development master plan. The negative impact of flooding during the first decade of this century, especially those of 2005, 2009 and 2012, continue to be reflected in existing socio-economic conditions. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the European Union (EU) are collaborating on a guide for Disaster Recovery Framework (DRF). This guide aims to help governments and partners plan for resilient post disaster recovery while contributing to longer-term sustainable development. It is based on practices gleaned from country experiences in disaster recovery around the world. Following the 2009 floods, the Government of Senegal elaborated its first recovery plan after a post-disaster needs assessment (PDNA) was conducted with the support of the international community. This case study thus uses the 2009 exercise as the point of departure for examining Senegal's policies for recovery and prevention of urban floods.

Climate Change --- Conflict and Development --- Disaster Management --- Environment --- Flood Control --- Natural Disasters --- Water Resources