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In response to a request from the Central Bank of the Congo (BCC), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR) mission virtually, during January 5–28, 2022. The FSSR performed a diagnostic of the financial system, reviewed progress in implementing previous IMF technical assistance (TA) recommendations, and developed a draft Technical Assistance Roadmap to help strengthen the BCC’s capacity in the areas covered by the FSSR. The FSSR also for the first-time covered gender inclusion in financial supervision. It identified five macrofinancial vulnerabilities pertaining to: (i) the quality of the banking system’s capital base; (ii) the difficulty in evaluating nonperforming loans following the COVID 19 financial support measures; (iii) risks related to financial dollarization; (iv) the impact on correspondent banking relationships of “de-risking”; and (v) intragroup exposures, as bank subsidiaries in the DRC place surplus funds with parent companies abroad. The BCC’s adoption of COVID-19 exit measures in December 2021, including specific reporting requirements, should provide momentum for additional TA in the near term to help the BCC analyze banks’ asset quality going forward.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

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This Selected Issues paper on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) focuses on building resilience and exploring opportunities from climate change. Addressing the challenges associated with climate change in the DRC requires a good understanding of its exposure to climate vulnerabilities as well as the bottlenecks in scaling up climate policies to achieve its nationally determined contribution. At the same time, the global efforts to develop low-carbon technology and conserve carbon sinks put the DRC in a good position with substantial long-term benefit for the country. Hence, the country would benefit from focused efforts in strengthening forest and mining managements, while building resilience to climate change. Current logging policies have failed to prevent deforestation in the DRC. The DRC presents itself as a solution country for the diffusion of carbon-reduction technology. The advent of metals critical for the energy transition could strengthen the impact of global commodity cycles on external sector.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

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After a third wave over the summer, COVID-19 cases are declining but vaccination has stalled. Economic activity has improved on the back of strengthened external demand, allowing for a stronger-than-envisaged buildup in international reserves. Inflation and the exchange rate have stabilized. Near-term challenges arise from uncertainty related to the pandemic and the gradual global economic recovery supporting high commodity prices.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

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Macroeconomic gains under the program so far are partly overshadowed by recurrent shocks. Due to the war in Ukraine and global economic developments, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a terms-of-trade shock associated with rising energy and food prices (pushing inflation above 12 percent) and falling prices for mining products. Compounding these headwinds, the escalation of the armed conflict in the east of the country is having major negative economic, security and humanitarian effects, the magnitude of which—if the situation persists or worsens further—could jeopardize recent progress.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

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Considerable macroeconomic gains were achieved in 2021: the economic rebound was stronger than envisaged, driven by the non-extractive sector; CPI inflation declined to 5.3 percent year-on-year, accompanied by a stable exchange rate as the central bank stopped providing financing to the government; and an improved external position supported reserves accumulation. The 2021 fiscal outturn was also better-than-projected although domestic arrears accumulated. Despite excess liquidity, the banking sector faces vulnerabilities. The war in Ukraine is pushing up the cost of living and rising the fiscal costs associated with the fuel subsidy. Despite this and deteriorating global economic prospects, the outlook remains favorable and provides opportunities to consolidate macro stability and scale up structural reforms, though significant downside risks remain, and severe fragility persists.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the