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Relief from Usury : Impact of a Community-Based Microcredit Program in Rural India
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The impact of micro-credit interventions on existing credit markets is theoretically ambiguous. Previous empirical work suggests the entry of a joint-liability lender may lead to a positive impact on the informal lending rate. This paper presents the first randomized controlled trial-based evidence on this question. Households in rural Bihar, India, were offered low-cost credit through a government-led self-help group program, the rollout of which was randomized at the panchayat level. The intervention led to a dramatic 14.5 percent decline in the use of informal credit, as households substituted to lower-cost self-help group loans. Due to the program, the average rate paid on recent loans fell from 69 to 58 percent per year overall. Rates on informal loans also declined slightly. Among landless households, informal lending rates fell from 65.5 to 63.2 percent, decreasing by 40 percent the gap in rates paid by landless versus landowning households. Two years after the initiation of the program, significant positive impacts on asset ownership among landless households were apparent. Impacts on various indicators of women's empowerment were mixed, and showed no clear direction when aggregated, nor was there any impact on consumption expenditures.


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Markets and Manipulation : Time for a Paradigm Shift?
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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There is a growing appreciation in economics that people have emotional vulnerabilities, commitments to social norms, and systematic irrationalities, which impact their decision making and choice in the marketplace. The flip side of this is that human beings are susceptible to being manipulated by unscrupulous agents who are single-minded about marketing their services and wares. This paper reviews George Akerlof and Robert Shiller's book, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, alongside other writings in the field, and discusses how this research agenda can be taken forward. The paper shows how this new research can shed light on the ubiquity of corruption in so many societies, and proposes ideas for controlling corruption.


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Tales of Peasants, Traders, and Officials : Contracting in Rural Andhra Pradesh, 1980-82
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ISBN: 1464815550 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Tales of Peasants, Traders, and Officials: Contracting in Rural Andhra Pradesh, 1980-82 stems from a research project in the subfield of rural economic organization, with a focus on credit and irrigation, and on how public policy in these domains influenced agricultural development. The fieldwork was carried out in three states of the Indian Union between 1980 to 1982, including 14 villages in Andhra Pradesh. The survey covered villagers' dealings in the markets for labor, tenancies, credit, and crops. It revealed not only diverse contractual forms in those markets, but also their interplay with access to credit and its terms. Understanding what motivates agents to contract in a particular way-or not at all-is essential in such a study. At the beginning and toward the close of the survey work, the principal investigators conducted interviews with focus groups, some respondents in the household sample, and various public officials, who were encouraged to speak freely. The first part of the monograph comprises an introductory chapter and two long travelogues, which provide structured accounts of the proceedings of those interviews. Next are formal analyses of various alternative contractual arrangements and the villagers' choices among them. These are partly inductive; they draw on what respondents had to say about their options and decisions as well as received theory. Four topics are treated in detail: (1) the choice between employment as a casual laborer and as an attached farm servant; (2) the choice between sharecropping and fixed-rents paid in kind, with special reference to land irrigated by percolation wells; (3) the closely related matter of loans, subsidies, and corruption in connection with the profitability of investments in wells; and (4) the tying of loans for the cultivation of commercial crops to the arrangements for marketing them. The central importance of villagers' outside options and access to credit emerges clearly.


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Labor and Welfare Impacts of a Large-Scale Livelihoods Program : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from India
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Improving the livelihoods of poor households and transitioning more women back to the labor force is a major challenge in South Asia. Self-employment promoted through women's groups has often been cited as a promising intervention towards this end. However, the evidence on the impact of such programs on household income and labor outcomes is limited, especially for government programs like the National Rural Livelihoods Mission in India. This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the welfare impacts of an "intensive approach" adopted under this program. The data for the study come from 4,316 household surveys in 727 villages. The study uses matching methods with the population and socioeconomic census, as well as an instrumental variable approach to construct a retrospective control group. The analysis finds that the program has been able to achieve its primary objective of improving livelihoods by transitioning more women into work. The program has also expanded access to credit, increased the proportion of savings, and reduced interest rates on credit for rural households. This is the first study to estimate the annual income effects of a government-run rural livelihoods program in India, and it shows significant increases in median income across the sample. The results for 30th, 40th, and 75th percentiles are also large and significant. However, the study did not find significant average treatment effects for income. Contrary to previous studies, this study finds weaker impacts on assets, except for livestock.


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Subnational Insolvency : Cross-Country Experiences and Lessons
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Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Subnational insolvency is a reoccurring event in development, as demonstrated by historical and modern episodes of subnational defaults in both developed and developing countries. Insolvency procedures become more important as countries decentralize expenditure, taxation, and borrowing, and broaden subnational credit markets. As the first cross-country survey of procedures to resolve subnational financial distress, this paper has particular relevance for decentralizing countries. The authors explain central features and variations of subnational insolvency mechanisms across countries. They identify judicial, administrative, and hybrid procedures, and show how entry point and political factors drive their design. Like private insolvency law, subnational insolvency procedures predictably allocate default risk, while providing breathing space for orderly debt restructuring and fiscal adjustment. Policymakers' desire to mitigate the tension between creditor rights and the need to maintain essential public services, to strengthen ex ante fiscal rules, and to harden subnational budget constraints are motivations specific to the public sector.


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Dual Credit Markets and Household Access to Finance : Evidence from a Representative Chinese Household Survey.
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Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Using a new and representative data set of Chinese household finance, this paper documents household access to and costs of finance, along with their correlates. As in most developing countries, informal finance is a crucial element of household finance, and wealth tends to be associated with better access to formal and informal finance. Better financial knowledge shifts loan portfolios toward formal sources relative to informal ones. Connections to the Communist Party are associated with significantly better access to finance in rural areas but not in urban areas. A larger social network is positively associated with access to informal finance. Controlling for household characteristics, rural residents pay interest rates on loans similar to urban residents. Younger residents pay higher rates, while households on firmer economic footing face lower rates. Taking financial classes and college education is associated with higher interest rates for urban residents, suggesting perhaps that financial knowledge coincides with greater demand for credit in areas with more economic opportunity. Overall, the findings suggest that Chinese residents face dual credit markets, with the poor, young, those with poor financial knowledge, and those with larger family sizes relying much more on informal finance, while others are better able to access formal finance.


Book
Dual Credit Markets and Household Access to Finance : Evidence from a Representative Chinese Household Survey.
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Using a new and representative data set of Chinese household finance, this paper documents household access to and costs of finance, along with their correlates. As in most developing countries, informal finance is a crucial element of household finance, and wealth tends to be associated with better access to formal and informal finance. Better financial knowledge shifts loan portfolios toward formal sources relative to informal ones. Connections to the Communist Party are associated with significantly better access to finance in rural areas but not in urban areas. A larger social network is positively associated with access to informal finance. Controlling for household characteristics, rural residents pay interest rates on loans similar to urban residents. Younger residents pay higher rates, while households on firmer economic footing face lower rates. Taking financial classes and college education is associated with higher interest rates for urban residents, suggesting perhaps that financial knowledge coincides with greater demand for credit in areas with more economic opportunity. Overall, the findings suggest that Chinese residents face dual credit markets, with the poor, young, those with poor financial knowledge, and those with larger family sizes relying much more on informal finance, while others are better able to access formal finance.


Book
Subnational Insolvency : Cross-Country Experiences and Lessons
Authors: ---
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

Subnational insolvency is a reoccurring event in development, as demonstrated by historical and modern episodes of subnational defaults in both developed and developing countries. Insolvency procedures become more important as countries decentralize expenditure, taxation, and borrowing, and broaden subnational credit markets. As the first cross-country survey of procedures to resolve subnational financial distress, this paper has particular relevance for decentralizing countries. The authors explain central features and variations of subnational insolvency mechanisms across countries. They identify judicial, administrative, and hybrid procedures, and show how entry point and political factors drive their design. Like private insolvency law, subnational insolvency procedures predictably allocate default risk, while providing breathing space for orderly debt restructuring and fiscal adjustment. Policymakers' desire to mitigate the tension between creditor rights and the need to maintain essential public services, to strengthen ex ante fiscal rules, and to harden subnational budget constraints are motivations specific to the public sector.


Book
Identification strategy : a field experiment on dynamic incentives in rural credit markets
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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How do borrowers respond to improvements in a lender's ability to punish defaulters? This paper reports the results of a randomized field experiment in rural Malawi that examines the impact of fingerprinting borrowers in a context where a unique identification system is absent. Fingerprinting allows the lender to more effectively use dynamic repayment incentives: withholding future loans from past defaulters while rewarding good borrowers with better loan terms. Consistent with a simple model of borrower heterogeneity and information asymmetries, fingerprinting led to substantially higher repayment rates for borrowers with the highest ex ante default risk, but had no effect for the rest of the borrowers. The change in repayment rates is driven by reductions in adverse selection (smaller loan sizes) and lower moral hazard (for example, less diversion of loan-financed fertilizer from its intended use on the cash crop).


Book
Characterizing the Business Cycles of Emerging Economies
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Using the dating algorithm by Harding and Pagan (2002) on a quarterly database for 23 emerging market economies (EMEs) and 12 developed countries over the period 1980.Q1 - 2006.Q2, the authors proceed to characterize and compare the business cycle features of these two groups. They first find that recessions are deeper and more frequent among EMEs (especially, among LAC countries) and that expansions are more sizable and longer (especially, among East Asian countries). After this characterization, this paper explores the linkages between the cost of recessions (as measured by the average annual rate of output loss in the peak-to-trough phase of the cycle) and several country-specific factors. The main findings are: (a) adverse terms of trade shocks raises the cost of recessions in countries with a more open trade regime, deeper financial markets and, surprisingly, a more diversified output structure. (b) U.S. interest rate shocks seem to have a significant impact on the cost of recessions in East Asian countries. (c) Recessions tend to be deeper if they coincide with a sudden stop, but the effect tends to be mitigated in countries with deeper domestic credit markets. (d) Countries with stronger institutions tend to have less costly recessions.

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