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Book
The demand for responsiveness in past U.S. military operations
Authors: ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Abstract

The Department of Defense (DoD) argues that it needs to maintain a high level of readiness across the joint force so that it can remain highly responsive. In this report, the author conducts a historical analysis to identify the demand for responsiveness in past U.S. operations. This historical analysis demonstrates that U.S. forces have been called on to rapidly respond to crises many times since 1950 and that responsiveness was important—to varying degrees—to achieving the United States' political aims in all but one of the cases examined. Moreover, the U.S. military has routinely been called on to carry out multiple operations simultaneously. Going forward, the United States must consider the balance between readiness for smaller-scale crisis response operations and being prepared to deter and defeat a great power in major combat. It is not clear that the U.S. military can continue to try to do everything. This historical analysis cannot specify the exact level of readiness that the joint force should maintain. But it does suggest that the United States has demanded a relatively ready military since World War II and that if the American people and American policymakers continue to expect their military to be able to quickly respond to events anywhere in the world, maintaining a relatively high level of readiness will be necessary.


Book
Will to fight : analyzing, modeling, and simulating the will to fight of military units

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Will to fight may be the single most important factor in war. The U.S. military accepts this premise: War is a human contest of opposing, independent wills. The purpose of using force is to bend and break adversary will. But this fundamental concept is poorly integrated into practice. The United States and its allies incur steep costs when they fail to place will to fight at the fore, when they misinterpret will to fight because it is ill-defined, or when they ignore it entirely. This report defines will to fight and describes its importance to the outcomes of wars. It gives the U.S. and allied militaries a way to better integrate will to fight into doctrine, planning, training, education, intelligence analysis, and military adviser assessments. It provides (1) a flexible, scalable model of will to fight that can be applied to any ground combat unit and (2) an experimental simulation model.


Book
Conflict trends and conflict drivers : an empirical assessment of historical conflict patterns and future conflict projections

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"Armed conflict has declined in both frequency and intensity since the end of the Cold War. The trends are especially clear for interstate conflict, but they also hold true for intrastate conflict. Taking into account historical trends and projections of key conflict drivers, the interstate and intrastate baseline future conflict projections in this report depict a continued decline through 2040, with interstate conflict down to extremely low levels and a much lower incidence of intrastate conflict. Some divergence from these projections is likely. The three factors that most strongly increased interstate conflict expectations were declining U.S. preeminence, declining capabilities of international organizations, and declining prevalence of consolidated democracies. The incidence of intrastate conflict is expected to increase if the capacity of state institutions or the rate of economic growth declines. Although the authors' projections indicate that interstate conflict may be rare in the future, the United States must retain a ready and credible land power deterrent to ensure such a future. Such a deterrent might not be used frequently, but its very existence delays the rise of a challenger and has a dampening effect on the incidence of conflict. The authors' projections also indicate that intrastate conflict (including proxy wars) will continue to be the main form of conflict incidence and, given the U.S. position in the international state system, Army forces are likely to become engaged in such conflicts. The trends toward a decrease in conflict incidence do not necessarily mean fewer U.S. interventions"--Publisher's web site


Book
A throughput-based analysis of Army active component/reserve component mix for major contingency surge operations

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This report examines how well the processes and timeline for generating ready forces from the Army reserve component (RC) units align with a need for rapid deployment to a future major conflict overseas. The report focuses on how the dynamics of the mobilization process for Army RC units can, or should, affect decisionmaking about force mix, as well as how policy and resourcing decisions can enhance or inhibit the speed and efficiency of mobilization. We created two models to simulate the effects of various changes to the mobilization and postmobilization training pipeline, to explore key drivers of training throughput, and to identify major bottlenecks that can inhibit fast and efficient mobilization of RC units. The analysis found that the sequence in which large and small units in the RC and active component (AC) units are put into the training pipeline affects the speed at which demand in the theater of operation can be met. Deploying smaller, quicker-to-train RC units in the earlier periods of a conflict and deferring the use of the larger, more complex-to-train RC formations to later stages of major operations appear to maximize the output of training facilities. The speed of deployment in a no-notice or short-notice mobilization may also be improved by maintaining a certain level of readiness in select RC units. For the Total Force structure, the findings suggest that the unit size and complexity should be considerations in allocation of force structure between the AC and the RC.


Book
Improving intelligence support to the future warfighter : acquisition for the contested environment
Author:
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Asked by the Air Force Materiel Command to determine whether the efficacy of existing and future acquisition programs and strategies could be improved, RAND's Project AIR FORCE engaged a team of experts to analyze U.S. Air Force intelligence support to the acquisition community. The main challenge they found is in ensuring the ability of the acquisition community to deliver capabilities that meet a threat as it exists when capabilities are delivered, not as it was when requirements were set. Doing so requires understanding the distinct cultures, resource constraints and incentives, and goals of the acquisition and intelligence enterprises themselves, all of which have been shaped during decades when the U.S. military dominated and its weaponry had no peer. Thus, the authors provide an overview of the acquisition enterprise ecosystem, which includes the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community, as well as Congress and other stakeholders. Focusing on interactions between acquisition and intelligence processes and personnel, including current disincentives to interacting, and taking into account resource constraints, they point to ways to enhance information sharing and workforce development in order to ensure that U.S. Air Force acquisition is adequately informed by intelligence in an environment of increasingly sophisticated threats from peer and near-peer adversaries.


Book
Army stock positioning : how can distribution performance be improved?

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The position of inventoried stock within the U.S. Army's logistical network is inseparably linked to operational success. The ability of the Army to deliver materiel as needed on a timely basis to support training and maintain readiness can ultimately decide mission outcome. In short, should the Army be able to improve delivery of materiel, it will improve its overall performance. This report focuses on how the Army could improve its distribution of heavy secondary items, such as wheel assemblies, that account for a small proportion of the overall number of items the Army must ship to users but comprise a large proportion of the weight it ships. It discusses how the Army could leverage the scheduled-truck network of Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) distribution hubs to decrease average customer wait time by two to four days, for this class of items. The Army could also save nearly $1 million monthly in shipping costs, through reduced use of truckload and less-than-truckload shipping. It also discusses how changes in source-preference logic in logistics-management programs could ensure those outside the DLA-hub network receive materiel from the most appropriate source. The research concludes that Army Materiel Command has several opportunities to direct where inventory is located, including when items are newly procured, when they come out of maintenance, and when source-preference programing is devised. Altogether, balancing inventory against regional demand would help item managers reduce requisition wait time and save costs.


Book
Main Command Post-Operational Detachments (MCP-ODs) and division headquarters readiness
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2019

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To effect reductions in institutional and operational headquarters (HQ), Focus Area Review Group II (FARG II) HQ design was developed and included a new unit type -- the Main Command Post-Operational Detachment (MCP-OD) -- through which reserve component (RC) personnel augment active component (AC) staffs. This report identifies the effects of this design on division HQ readiness and develops potential mitigation strategies. The authors reviewed Army history, doctrine, and force structure documents to define when a division HQ deploys and the missions it might be assigned. They visited several AC divisions to interview participants in a multicomponent HQ and conducted telephone interviews with other units. The authors then analyzed how AC and RC staffs have prepared their combined forces for employment as a single HQ and where their efforts have been challenged. Last, the authors developed a model to illustrate when a division HQ will experience increased risk as it tries to meet requirements.


Book
Evaluating the Army's ability to regenerate : history and future options

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"The 2014 Army Posture Statement considered two future Army end strengths: one that includes an active component (AC) of 450,000, as part of a Total Army of 980,000 (980K), and one that includes an AC of 420,000, as part of a Total Army of 920,000 (920K). These force sizes call into question the Army's ability to "regenerate" itself to higher strength levels in a timely way should the nation require it to do so. This analysis modeled the Army's ability to increase its AC end strength over a five-year period -- starting from a Total Army of 980K and starting from a Total Army of 920K -- so that the Army could provide the number of deployable troops available at the end of the last conflict in 2010 (what we term a "550K" AC). The analysis indicated that the policies the Army and the Department of Defense currently have at their disposal are likely adequate to expand the force to provide the capacity associated with a 550K AC, starting with either the 980K or 920K Total Army. The analyses did not uncover any constraints that would make such regeneration infeasible but did suggest a number of risks, particularly when expanding from a Total Army of 920K. Potentially the most critical risk revolves around the fact that the Army as a whole will still need to meet operational demands even as the AC is expanding. Thus, the Army would have to draw on its reserve components (RC) to an unprecedented extent to sustain high levels of operational commitment until it accomplishes regeneration."--Publisher's description.


Book
Independent Review of the Army Combat Fitness Test: Summary of Key Findings and Recommendations

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The Army is introducing a new fitness test for the first time in more than 40 years. The six-event Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT) is designed to (1) ensure soldiers are ready to perform combat tasks, (2) reduce preventable injuries, and (3) promote a culture of fitness throughout the Army. In this report, the authors conduct an independent review of the ACFT and provide recommendations to support the Army's implementation decisions. The RAND research team undertook a multidimensional approach that involved (1) an evaluation of ACFT data gathered by the Army, (2) interviews and discussions with members of the workforce and subject-matter experts, and (3) a review and assessment of ACFT-relevant research, plans, policies, and other guidance. The authors find that the Army's evidence base for the ACFT supports some, but not all, aspects of the test. In particular, some events have not been shown to predict combat task performance or reduce injuries, and justification is needed for why all fitness events and minimum standards apply equally to all soldiers. Relatedly, ACFT scores collected by the Army during the diagnostic phase show some groups failing at noticeably higher rates - the implications of which need to be investigated. Evidence suggests that scores and pass rates can improve with training and that soldiers want more access to the right training and equipment. To address these concerns and because it must continuously monitor the ACFT after its full-scale implementation, the Army should establish a permanent, institutionalized process for overseeing and refining the ACFT.

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