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Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts regarding economic growth. These models, however, are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process—the massive reallocation of labor from agriculture into manufacturing and services. This paper presents a simple model consistent with both the Kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labor reallocation. The model shows that balanced growth can be consistent with structural change.

Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Environment and Growth --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Labor Economics: General --- Agriculture: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Economic growth --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Agricultural economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Sustainable growth --- Real interest rates --- Labor --- Agricultural sector --- Manufacturing --- Financial services --- Economic sectors --- Economic development --- Interest rates --- Labor economics --- Agricultural industries --- United States

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Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.

Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Criminology --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Financial Crises --- Environment and Growth --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Economic growth --- Economics of specific sectors --- Informal economy --- Sustainable growth --- Employment --- Financial crises --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Money laundering --- Economic development --- Financial services industry --- Prices --- United States

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Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.

Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Criminology --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Financial Crises --- Environment and Growth --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Economic growth --- Economics of specific sectors --- Informal economy --- Sustainable growth --- Employment --- Financial crises --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Money laundering --- Economic development --- Financial services industry --- Prices --- United States

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Weather-related natural disasters and climate change pose interrelated macro-fiscal challenges. Using panel-VARX studies for a sample of 19 countries in Developing Asia during 1970 to 2015, this paper contributes new empirical evidence on the dynamic adjustment path of growth and key fiscal variables after severe weather-related disasters. It does not only show that output loss can be permanent, but even twice as large for cases of severe casualties or material damages than people affected. Meanwhile, key fiscal aggregates remain surprisingly stable. Event and case studies suggest that this can reflect both a deliberate policy choice or binding constraints. The latter can make governments respond through mitigating fiscal policy efforts such as ad hoc fiscal rebalancing and reprioritization. The findings help better customize disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts to countries’ risk exposure along a particular loss dimension.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Natural Disasters --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Environment and Growth --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Natural disasters --- Fiscal policy --- Revenue administration --- Public debt --- Fiscal stance --- Environment --- Revenue --- Debts, Public --- Myanmar

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We question the conventional view that it is optimal for government to maintain a stable level of spending out of oil wealth. We compare this conventional policy recommendation with one where government spends all of its oil revenues upfront, at the same rate as oil is extracted. Using a neoclassical growth model with positive external effects of public spending on consumption and productivity, we find that, if the economy is growing along the steady-state balanced path, the conventional view is validated. However, if the economy starts with a lower capital stock, the welfare ranking across two policies can be reversed.

Fiscal policy --- Public investments --- Government investments --- Investments, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments --- Capital budget --- Economic development projects --- Investment of public funds --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Environment and Growth --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Expenditure --- Consumption --- Sustainable growth --- Public investment spending --- National accounts --- Private consumption --- Economics --- Economic development --- Mexico