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We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates, by comparing the unit root properties of a group of international real exchange rates with two groups of intra-national real exchange rates. Strikingly, we find that while the international real rates taken as a group appear mean-reverting, the intra-national rates are not. This is consistent with the view that while monetary shocks may be mean-reverting over the medium term, underlying real factors do generate long-term trends in real exchange rates.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Hypothesis Testing --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Monetary unions --- Exchange rate analysis --- Economic integration --- United States
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A recent study by Grilli and Kaminsky (1991) argues that real exchange rate (RER) behavior is likely to be dependent on the particular historical period rather than on the nominal exchange rate arrangement itself. This paper reexamines RER behavior using alternative data sets, as well as different econometric methods, over the period 1880-1997. It finds strong evidence supporting the nonneutrality hypothesis of nominal exchange regime on RER volatility. Also, regime shifts play an important role in determining the persistence of shocks to the RER.
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This paper examines the behavior of the exchange rates of selected emerging market East Asian economies in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. The results suggest that movements in the Asia-5 currencies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand) were significantly influenced by the U.S. dollar's day-to-day movements before the crisis, and have indeed continued to do so post-crisis. However, comparisons with a range of other currencies suggest that this is a fairly common trait across various regimes. Moreover, results from the post-crisis data do not support the view that the Asia-5 currencies presently have the same characteristics as they did before the crisis.
Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Crises --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Financial crises --- Exchange rate analysis --- Money --- Korea, Republic of
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Rational speculation in foreign exchange trading is often assumed to dampen exchange rate fluctuations by bringing the market back to fundamentals. Nevertheless, information congestion provides incentives for traders to follow positive feedback strategies which result in persistent and volatile exchange rate behavior by magnifying the impact of exogenous shocks. Empirical evidence is presented which is consistent with such autocatalytic effects.
Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International Financial Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Exchange rate analysis --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Currency markets --- Money --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange market --- United States
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The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Pensions --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Pension spending --- Exchange rate analysis --- Payroll tax --- Expenditure --- Taxes --- Fiscal policy --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Brazil
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The IEO’s latest Annual Report covers its activities during the financial year ended April 2007. It summarizes the most recent IEO evaluations of The IMF and Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa and IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice. The report also presents messages that are common to many IEO evaluations and are particularly noteworthy as the IMF proceeds with the implementation of its Medium-Term Strategy. Other topics discussed include implementation of recommendations made in 2006 by the External Evaluation Panel of the IEO, ongoing projects, the identification of future evaluations, and summaries of follow-ups of past evaluations.
Budgeting --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Social Services and Welfare --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Labor Economics: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Social welfare & social services --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Poverty reduction strategy --- Exchange rate policy --- Labor --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate analysis --- Poverty --- Poverty reduction and development --- Labor economics --- Budget --- Revenue --- Argentina
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The IMF is charged by its Articles of Agreement and a 1977 Executive Board Decision to exercise surveillance over the international monetary system and members’ exchange rate policies. The overriding question addressed by this evaluation is whether, over the 1999–2005 period, the IMF fulfilled this core responsibility. The main finding is that the IMF was simply not as effective as it needs to be in both its analysis and advice and in its dialogue with member countries. The evidence supporting this conclusion, along with other key findings, is set out in this report. The report also presents a detailed set of recommendations that could go a long way in improving the quality and effectiveness of IMF surveillance.
Foreign exchange rates. --- International Monetary Fund --- Evaluation. --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- International Financial Markets --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Banking --- Exchange rate policy --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate analysis --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Foreign exchange market --- International finance --- Labor economics --- Money --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Financial services industry --- United States
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The IMF carries out its mandate to foster macroeconomic stability and thereby facilitate prosperity by promoting the adoption of sound policies and international cooperation. Ultimately, the means to achieve these goals is to have Fund policy advice translated into concrete action. Key to achieving such traction is the relationship between Fund staff and member country authorities, together with the quality of the advice and members’ confidence in it. That is, the Fund needs to be seen as a trusted advisor. This evaluation examines in what circumstances the Fund is viewed as a trusted advisor to its member countries. It uses evidence gathered since 2005, but emphasizes the period since the onset of the global crisis in 2007–08. Because the concept of trusted advisor is “in the eyes of the beholder,” the evaluation derives the main attributes from country authorities themselves.
Monetary policy. --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Environmental Economics --- Budgeting --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Externalities --- Fiscal Policy --- Financial Crises --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Budgeting & financial management --- Monetary economics --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Macroprudential policy --- Spillovers --- Financial Sector Assessment Program --- Exchange rate analysis --- Financial markets --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Fiscal stimulus --- Fiscal policy --- Financial sector stability --- Fiscal stabilization --- Financial services industry --- International finance --- Revenue --- Income --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Budget --- United States
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