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This present aims to treat the causal link between exchange rate fluctuations and the economy, based on the case of Morocco, this problem of volatility of rates has been imposed for a long time and has been accentuated by the implementation of the new reform of the exchange rate system. Starting from the notion of the exchange rate system, this study explores the different phases through which the exchange rate regime has shifted, the shift from fixity to flexibility, and the impact of this shift on the country's overall monetary policy. Moreover, in this document, I aim to treat the opening of the Moroccan economy to the international and the shocks that can exist there, with the necessary adjustments. Ultimately, this work infers that Dirham’s value has many other key determinants besides the trade balance imbalance and that the flexibilization of the Dirham is a reform that will allow the Kingdom to cope best, to unexpected shocks, comparing it with the old system that was adopted. A conclusion with the prospects of development of this project seems interesting.
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The paper develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the trade-off between internal price stability and external competitiveness and allowing for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock-like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market-should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of 13 Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Bulgaria
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This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms’ location choices and on countries’ specialization patterns. In a two-country, two-differentiated-goods monetary model, demand, supply, and monetary (as well as exchange rate) shocks arise after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper finds that countries are more specialized under flexible than fixed rates, and that the pattern of specialization is not uniquely defined by trade models but depends also on the exchange rate regime. The adoption of fixed exchange rates endogenously increases the desirability of this currency area by reducing the shock asymmetry. These results also shed light on the effects of exchange rate variability on trade.
Foreign Exchange --- Taxation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Tax incentives
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This paper addresses the issue of the appropriate exchange rate regimes for Jordan and Lebanon in the context of the literature on optimum currency areas and the arguments concerning the use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for the economy. It presents some empirical results on the nature of output shocks in Jordan and Lebanon in the recent past, on the price sensitivity of exports from Jordan, and on currency and asset substitution in both countries. It does not directly address the issue of whether the current exchange rate in either country is overvalued or not, nor does it discuss the issue of an appropriate exit strategy from the current peg.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exports --- Exchange rates --- International trade --- Jordan
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A widely held nostrum is that countries should exit heavily managed exchange rate regimes when the going is good, rather than when the exchange rate is under pressure to depreciate. Have countries followed this advice in practice? And, if so, how good has the going been? We find that in the past 25 years or so, almost all exits to more flexible regimes were followed by a depreciation of the exchange rate, and that exits were about evenly divided between disorderly and orderly cases. A logit econometric model, indicates that the general circumstances of orderly and disorderly exits have been broadly similar: an overvalued real exchange rate, falling reserves, a difficult fiscal position, and high world interest rates. Wellestablished pegs were less likely to end.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Foreign exchange administration. --- Foreign exchange rates. --- Foreign Exchange --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Managed exchange rates --- United States
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This paper provides a brief overview of the evolution of exchange rate policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1993 to 2002 and reviews the basic criteria for the choice of the exchange rate regime in the medium term. The analysis highlights the merits of an intermediate regime which would allow the authorities to smooth out excessive short-term exchange rate fluctuations while letting nominal exchange rate movements facilitate real exchange rate adjustments called for by major oil price shocks.
Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- International Financial Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Real exchange rates --- Currency markets --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange market --- Iran, Islamic Republic of
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Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments within the existing regime. Distinguishing episodes characterized by "exchange market pressure" from orderly exits, the estimated probabilities of alternative exit episodes indicate that crises are preceded by a deterioration of economic conditions. In contrast, orderly exits to less flexible regimes are preceded by long regime duration, a decline in financial liabilities of the banking system, and an increase in official reserves. Exits to more flexible regimes are associated with both emerging market and other developing countries, and an increase in trade openness and government borrowing from banks. The results are robust to alternative sensitivity analyses and have reasonable predictive performance, confirming that economic and financial conditions and regime duration play important roles in determining the future course of exchange rate regimes.
Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- International Financial Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Crawling peg --- Currency markets --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange market --- Israel
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Traditionally the choice of exchange rate regime has been seen as a second-best policy choice, which can be directed toward mitigating the distortionary effects of price or information rigidities. In this paradigm the optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility is found to depend of the source and nature of shocks hitting an economy. More recent literature views the exchange rate as a widely and frequently seen manifestation of government policy with careful exchange-rate management emerging as a tool that can enhance shaky policy credibility.
Foreign Exchange --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Exchange rate policy --- Conventional peg --- Germany
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This paper reviews the experiences of a number of European countries in coping with capital inflows. It describes the nature of the inflows, their implications for macroeconomic and financial stability, and the policy responses used to cope with them. The experiences suggest that as countries become more integrated with international financial markets, there is little room to regulate capital flows effectively. The most effective ways to deal with capital inflows would be to deepen the financial markets, strengthen financial system supervision and regulation, where needed, and improve the capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies. These actions will help increase the absorption capacity and resilience of the economies and financial systems to the risks associated with the inflows.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Capital inflows --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exchange rates --- Inflation targeting --- Capital movements --- Monetary policy --- Czech Republic
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A recent study by Grilli and Kaminsky (1991) argues that real exchange rate (RER) behavior is likely to be dependent on the particular historical period rather than on the nominal exchange rate arrangement itself. This paper reexamines RER behavior using alternative data sets, as well as different econometric methods, over the period 1880-1997. It finds strong evidence supporting the nonneutrality hypothesis of nominal exchange regime on RER volatility. Also, regime shifts play an important role in determining the persistence of shocks to the RER.
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