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This paper examines the extent to which digitalization—measured by a new proxy based on IP addresses allocations per country—has influenced inflation dynamics in a sample of 36 advanced and emerging economies over 2000-2017. Phillips curve estimates show that digitalization has a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. Its economic impact is not large but has increased since 2012 and mainly operates through a cost/competition channel. Principal components and cointegration analysis further suggest digitalization is a key driver of lower trend inflation.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Production and Operations Management --- Globalization --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Globalization: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Information technology industries --- Digital or internet economics --- Digitalization --- Global value chains --- Digital economy --- Output gap --- Prices --- Technology --- Economic sectors --- Production --- Information technology --- Electronic commerce --- Economic theory --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper studies the effect of digitalization on the perception of corruption and trust in tax officials in Africa. Using individual-level data from Afrobarometer surveys and several indices of digitalization, we find that an increase in digital adoption is associated with a reduction in the perception of corruption and an increase in trust in tax officials. Exploiting the exogeneous deployment of submarine cables at the local level, the paper provides evidence of a negative impact of the use of Internet on the perception of corruption. Yet, the paper shows that the dampening effect of digitalization on corruption is hindered in countries where the government has a pattern of intentionally shutting down the Internet, while countries that successfully promote information and communication technology (ICT) enjoy a more amplified effect.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Criminology --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Education: General --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Information technology industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Education --- Digitalization --- Public employment --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Information technology --- Economic theory --- Finance, Public --- United States
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Digitalization and the innovative use of digital technologies is changing the way we work, learn, communicate, buy and sell products. One emerging digital technology of growing importance is cloud computing. More and more businesses, governments and households are purchasing hardware and software services from a small number of large cloud computing providers. This change is having an impact on how macroeconomic data are compiled and how they are interpreted by users. Specifically, this is changing the information and communication technology (ICT) investment pattern from one where ICT investment was diversified across many industries to a more concentrated investment pattern. Additionally, this is having an impact on cross-border flows of commercial services since the cloud service provider does not need to be located in the same economic territory as the purchaser of cloud services. This paper will outline some of the methodological and compilation challenges facing statisticians and analysts, provide some tools that can be used to overcome these challenges and highlight some of the implications these changes are having on the way users of national accounts data look at investment and trade in commercial services.
Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Cloud Computing --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Telecommunications --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Trade: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Cloud computing --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Imports --- Service exports --- Information technology in revenue administration --- Employee contributions --- Technology --- International trade --- Revenue administration --- Taxes --- Exports --- Revenue --- Social security --- United States
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As the pandemic heigthened policymakers’ demand for more frequent and timely indicators to assess economic activities, traditional data collection and compilation methods to produce official indicators are falling short—triggering stronger interest in real time data to provide early signals of turning points in economic activity. In this paper, we examine how data extracted from the Google Places API and Google Trends can be used to develop high frequency indicators aligned to the statistical concepts, classifications, and definitions used in producing official measures. The approach is illustrated by use of Google data-derived indicators that predict well the GDP trajectories of selected countries during the early stage of COVID-19. To this end, we developed a methodological toolkit for national compilers interested in using Google data to enhance the timeliness and frequency of economic indicators.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Statistics --- Web Services & APIs --- Diseases: Contagious --- Information Management --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Health Behavior --- Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Web services --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Data capture & analysis --- Manufacturing industries --- Economic and financial statistics --- APIs --- Technology --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Big data --- Manufacturing --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic statistics --- Application program interfaces --- Computer software --- Communicable diseases --- Australia
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Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise many benefits but, if not well designed, they could have undesired consequences, including for monetary policy. Issuing an unremunerated CBDC or a wholesale CBDC does not change the objectives of monetary policy or the operational framework for monetary policy. CBDCs can, however, induce changes in the retail, wholesale and cross border payments that have negative spillover effects on monetary policy, through their effects on money velocity, bank deposit disintermediation, volatility of bank reserves, currency substitution, and capital flows. Countries most vulnerable are those with banking systems dominated by small retail deposits and demand deposits, low levels of digital payments and weak macro fundamentals. Proposed CBDC design features, such as caps on CBDC holdings and unremunerating the CBDC can moderate disintermediation risks, but they are not sufficient. Central banks will need to ensure that unintended macroeconomic risks are comprehensively identified and mitigated.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks and Banking --- Islamic Banking and Finance --- Noncooperative Games --- Stochastic and Dynamic Games --- Evolutionary Games --- Repeated Games --- Market Structure and Pricing: General --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Management of Technological Innovation and R&D --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Other Economic Systems: Public Economics --- Financial Economics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Banking --- Distributed ledgers --- Monetary economics --- Technology --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Financial services --- Central Bank digital currencies --- Commercial banks --- Velocity of money --- Islamic banking --- Monetary base --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Banks and banking --- Islamic countries --- Money supply --- United States
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Mobile money services have rapidly expanded across emerging and developing economies and enabled new ways through which households and firms can conduct payments, save and send remittances. We explore how mobile money use can impact economic outcomes in India using granular data on transactions from Paytm, one of the largest mobile money service provider in India with over 400 million users. We exploit the period around the demonetization policy, which prompted a surge in mobile money adoption, and analyze how mobile money affects traditional risk-sharing arrangements. Our main finding is that mobile money use increases the resilience to shocks by dampening the impact of rainfall shocks on nightlights-based economic activity and household consumption. We complement these findings by conducting a firm survey around a phased targeting intervention which incentivized firms to adopt the mobile payment technology. Our results suggest that firms adopting mobile payments improved their sales after six-months of use, compared to other firms. We also elicit firms’ subjective expectations on future sales and find mobile payment adoption to be associated with lower subjective uncertainty and greater sales optimism.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Mobile and Wireless Communications --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope --- Telecommunications --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Microelectronics --- Computers --- Communications Equipment --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Technology --- general issues --- WAP (wireless) technology --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Mobile banking --- Mobile internet --- Currency reform --- Money --- Fintech --- Banks and banking, Mobile --- Wireless Internet --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- India
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