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A new Zimbabwe? : assessing continuity and change after Mugabe
Authors: ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Abstract

After 37 years in power, President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe was toppled via a military coup in November 2017. His successor and former vice president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, promised a break from Mugabe's authoritarian rule and economic mismanagement, declaring a "new Zimbabwe" that is "open for business." To what extent has Mnangagwa delivered on his promises? In this report, the author seeks to answer this pressing question by assessing Zimbabwe's political and economic reform efforts after Mugabe. In the report's conclusion, the author forecasts the country's likely trajectory over the next one to three years and offers recommendations for the international community to help support Zimbabwe's recovery. The author conducted more than two dozen semistructured interviews in Harare, Zimbabwe, and Washington, D.C., in July and August 2019. In short, although Mnangagwa has deployed flowery reform rhetoric, his administration's piecemeal actions belie any movement toward genuine political or economic reform. Repression has increased and the economy continues to sink. With the old guard and military still firmly in power — and both benefiting from perches atop the highly cartelized and patronage-based economy — genuine reform is unlikely in the next one to three years under present conditions in Zimbabwe. Politics and economics are inextricably linked in Zimbabwe, and the country will be unable to recover unless the two sectors are addressed in tandem. To help the country recover from years of mismanagement, corruption, and state violence, international actors — including the United States — would be wise to push the government in a coordinated fashion to implement genuine political, economic, and security reforms.

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