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The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Monetary Policy --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Morocco

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Over the past decade, inflation has become less responsive to domestic demand pressures in many industrial countries. This development has been attributed, in part, to globalization forces. A small macroeconomic model, estimated on UK data using Bayesian estimation, is used to analyze the monetary policy implications of this structural change. The focus is on the implications of a globalization-related flattening of the Phillips curve for the trade-off between inflation and output gap variability and for the efficient monetary policy response rule.

Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Output gap --- Inflation targeting --- Prices --- Production --- Monetary policy --- Economic theory --- United Kingdom --- Phillips curve. --- Monetary policy.

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This paper explores how a multivariate logit empirical model of banking crisis probabilities can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in-sample statistics. The model has better in-sample performance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of the decision maker regarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs.

Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Finance --- Banking crises --- Financial crises --- Commercial banks --- Real interest rates --- Systemic crises --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Thailand

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National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Food prices --- Exchange rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Real exchange rates --- Agricultural production --- Production --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Agricultural industries --- Rwanda --- Quarterly review. --- Banks and Banking. --- Inflation. --- Macroeconomics. --- Agribusiness. --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation. --- Monetary Policy. --- Quantitative Policy Modeling. --- Price Level. --- Deflation. --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis. --- Prices. --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects. --- Macroeconomics: Production. --- Currency. --- Foreign exchange. --- Banking. --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries. --- Food prices. --- Exchange rates. --- Central bank policy rate. --- Real exchange rates. --- Agricultural production. --- Production. --- Financial services. --- Interest rates. --- Agricultural industries. --- National Bank of Rwanda --- History. --- Rwanda.

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There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yield spread in the government securities market to movements in the index of industrial production. The results show that yield spread could, inter alia, be considered as a leading indicator of industrial activity in India.

Banks and Banking --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Labor Economics: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Yield curve --- Short term interest rates --- Labor --- Government securities --- Real interest rates --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Interest rates --- Labor economics --- United States