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This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth) are identified. It is found that Caribbean classical cycles are longer-lived than those of developed countries and non-Caribbean developing countries. While there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in the Caribbean classical cycle, on both measures the Caribbean growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, there is some evidence of synchronization among the classical cycles of Caribbean countries, and stronger evidence of synchronization of Caribbean growth cycles.

Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Cariribean Area --- Economic policy. --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic growth --- Output gap --- Production growth --- Production --- Economic theory --- United States

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This paper documents the extent of financial linkages between Canada and the United States and explores the impact of changes in U.S. financial conditions on financial conditions and real economic activity in Canada. It shows that close to a quarter of financing by Canadian corporations is raised south of the border. Empirical analysis using structural vector autoregressions establishes that a tightening in U.S. financial conditions has significant implications for real activity in Canada. For example, a percentage point increase in the 3- month T-bill rate, other things being equal, leads to a decline of slightly more than one percentage point in Canada's real GDP growth after 3 quarters. That decline can be decomposed into three channels: the direct financial channel, where the slowdown is attributed to a rising cost of funds for Canadian companies raising capital in the United States; the indirect financial channel, where growth is hampered as financial conditions in Canada tighten in response to a tightening in the United States; and the trade channel, which goes through a slowing in the U.S. economy, and correspondently lower demand for Canadian exports. As would be expected from the high degree of reliance on U.S. financing, the direct financial channel proves dominant in the short term.

Canada --- United States --- Foreign economic relations --- Economic conditions --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Production growth --- Exchange rates --- Asset prices --- Oil prices --- Production --- Economic theory

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We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the similarity of economic structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model. We apply the new alogrithm by nowcasting output growth with a panel of 102 countries and are able to significantly improve forecast accuracy relative to alternative pools. The algortihm improves nowcast performance for advanced economies, as well as emerging market and developing economies, suggesting that machine learning techniques using pooled data could be an important macro tool for many countries.

Macroeconomics --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Neural Networks and Related Topics --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Machine learning --- Production growth --- Technology --- Production --- Economic theory --- Costa Rica

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Conventional wisdom states that currency depreciation in oil-producing countries are contractionary because demand effects, limited by the prevalence of oil exports priced in dollars, are more than offset by adverse supply effects. Iran, however, has experienced a rapid increase in non-oil exports in the last decade. Against this background, the paper tests whether the conventional wisdom still applies to Iran and concludes that the emergence of the non-oil export sector has made currency depreciation expansionary. The expansionary effect is particularly evident with respect to anticipated persistent depreciation in the long-run. Notwithstanding the varying effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the demand and supply sides of the economy, managing a flexible exchange rate gradually over time towards achieving stability in the real effective exchange rate may strike the necessary balance.

Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Production growth --- Currencies --- Depreciation --- Real effective exchange rates --- Production --- Economic theory --- Money --- Saving and investment --- Iran, Islamic Republic of

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Chile’s average economic growth between 1990 and 1998 was above 7 percent per year, more than double than in previous decades, and higher than in any other Latin American country in the same period. This paper assesses empirically the main hypotheses suggested in the literature about the factors underlying this rapid growth: good economic policies, good luck in the external sector, and the country’s return to a democratic system of government. The statistical and quantitative results indicate that Chile’s rapid growth during the 1990s was due to good policies and the improved political situation.

Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Productivity --- Production growth --- Structural reforms --- Terms of trade --- Production --- Macrostructural analysis --- Prices --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Chile