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The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Agriculture & Farming Systems --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic growth --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Foreign exchange --- Globalization --- Growth rates --- Rapid growth --- Remittances

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Infrastructure contributed 1.2 percentage points to Malawi's annual per capital GDP growth over the past decade. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could increase that contribution by 3.5 percentage points. Malawi's successes in infrastructure development include reaching the Millennium Development Goals for water and making GSM telephone signals widely available without public subsidy. Challenges include improving the reliability and sustainability of the power sector, raising funding for road maintenance, preventing overengineering of roads, enhancing market access in agricultural areas, and lowering the cost of information and communications services. The latter goal may be achievable by securing competitive access to the new submarine infrastructure on the East African coast. Addressing Malawi's infrastructure deficit would require sustained expenditures of almost USD 600 million per year over the decade 2006-15. During the mid-2000s, the country spent close to USD 200 million per year, about half of which went to the transport sector. Because of widespread inefficiencies-underpricing of power, improperly maintained roads, and utility distribution losses-about USD 200 million is wasted each year. But even if those inefficiencies were eliminated, Malawi would still face an annual infrastructure funding gap of almost USD 300 million. That gap could be cut to USD 100 million by engaging in regional trade of electricity, using lower-cost technologies in water and sanitation, and adopting less-ambitious road-building technologies. If inefficiencies were eliminated and recent spending levels sustained, Malawi could reach its infrastructure targets within 16 years.

Banks & Banking Reform --- Economic Growth --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Factors of Production --- Infrastructure Economics --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Investing --- Output --- Rapid Growth --- Town Water Supply and Sanitation --- Transport Economics Policy & Planning

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In Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, the higher the relative household income is, the higher the savings rate is. But, surprisingly, savings rates appear to be unaffected by either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their own homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables; During the transition from central planning to market economies now under way in Eastern Europe, output levels first collapsed by 40 to 50 percent in most countries, then staged a modest recovery in the last two years. Longer-term revival of growth requires a resumption of investment and thus, realistically, of domestic savings. To explore the determinants of household savings rates in transition economies, Denizer, Wolf, and Ying studied matching household surveys for three Central European economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. They find that savings rates strongly increase with relative income, suggesting that increasing income inequality may play a role in determining savings rates. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables. The influence of demographic factors broadly matches earlier findings for developing countries. Perhaps surprisingly, variables associated with the household's position in the transition process - including either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment - do not play a significant role in determining savings rates. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to understand determinants of savings, at both the household and the aggregate level.

Bank --- Consumer --- Debt Markets --- Earnings --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Future Income --- Household Expenditure --- Household Savings --- Income --- Incomes --- Lifetime --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Economies --- Poverty Reduction --- Precautionary Savings --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Purchases --- Rapid Growth --- Retail Cred Savings Behavior --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Savings Rates --- Social Welfare --- Unemployment --- Wages

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In Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, the higher the relative household income is, the higher the savings rate is. But, surprisingly, savings rates appear to be unaffected by either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their own homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables; During the transition from central planning to market economies now under way in Eastern Europe, output levels first collapsed by 40 to 50 percent in most countries, then staged a modest recovery in the last two years. Longer-term revival of growth requires a resumption of investment and thus, realistically, of domestic savings. To explore the determinants of household savings rates in transition economies, Denizer, Wolf, and Ying studied matching household surveys for three Central European economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. They find that savings rates strongly increase with relative income, suggesting that increasing income inequality may play a role in determining savings rates. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables. The influence of demographic factors broadly matches earlier findings for developing countries. Perhaps surprisingly, variables associated with the household's position in the transition process - including either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment - do not play a significant role in determining savings rates. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to understand determinants of savings, at both the household and the aggregate level.

Bank --- Consumer --- Debt Markets --- Earnings --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Future Income --- Household Expenditure --- Household Savings --- Income --- Incomes --- Lifetime --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Economies --- Poverty Reduction --- Precautionary Savings --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Purchases --- Rapid Growth --- Retail Cred Savings Behavior --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Savings Rates --- Social Welfare --- Unemployment --- Wages

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The authors examine the trade policy response of Latin American governments to the rapid growth of China and India in world markets. To explain higher protection in sectors where a large share is imported from these countries, they extend the "protection for sale" model to allow for different degrees of substitutability between domestically produced and imported varieties. The extension suggests that higher levels of protection toward Chinese goods can be explained by high substitutability between domestically produced goods and Chinese goods, whereas lower levels of protection toward goods imported from India can be explained by low substitutability with domestically produced goods. The data support the extension to the "protection for sale" model, which performs better than the original specification in terms of explaining Latin America's structure of protection.

Consumption --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Demands --- Domestic Prices --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Economies --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Exogenous Shocks --- Export Growth --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fixed Effects --- Free Trade --- Globalization and Financial Integration --- Import --- Imports --- International Economics & Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Political Economy --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Development --- Quotas --- Rapid Growth --- Tariff Barriers --- Trade Defic Trade Integration --- Trade Policies --- Trade Policy --- Weight --- World Markets