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Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Other --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Economic Forecasting --- Revenue forecasting --- Revenue administration --- Budget planning and preparation --- Debt bias --- GDP forecasting --- Tax policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- National accounts --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Budget --- National income --- United States

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This paper synthesizes the findings from a series of case studies on the interaction between the PRSP process and the budget. The five studies, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Tanzania and Vietnam aim to assess the extent to which public finance management and budget allocations reflect the principles and content of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PRSP, hence providing insights into progress in PRS implementation. The cases also shed light on whether the PRSP process itself has fostered more accountable, efficient and pro-poor budget processes and allocations as of 2003.The PRSP process, with its focus on data and information for evidence-based policy-making, open and participatory policy-making processes, poverty results and country-led donor coordination, alignment and harmonization has the potential to significantly improve the pro-poor focus and general accountability of budgeting processes.The cases confront a number of methodological challenges. First, in some countries and sectors, lack of appropriate data constrained the extent to which the research questions could be fully answered. Second, the PRSP remains a relatively recent innovation in all the countries studied and we recognize that many of our findings are preliminary, and require additional confirmation over time. Third, any assessment of the value added of the PRSP approach needs to be cognizant of the initial conditions in country, both to avoid ascribing successes to the PRSP which pre-date its existence, and to temper expectations about what the approach can deliver in a relatively short space of time given the starting point of each country. To address this last challenge, the case studies explicitly acknowledge the pre-existing situation in-country and try to assess the value added of the PRSP process.The four countries studied have a number of common features.Finally, and perhaps most importantly, all five countries share a high-level political commitment to addressing poverty, although the extent to which this commitment permeates throughout government agencies varies from country to country.The five countries, however, also display many distinctive features. Bolivia and Cambodia, for example, both suffer from high degrees of political fragmentation, which in Bolivia has manifested itself as civil unrest on a number of occasions in the last two years. Burkina Faso, Tanzania, and Vietnam, on the other hand, benefit from more stable political systems and an inherited commitment to pro-poor policies from socialist governments.

Access to Information --- Accountability --- Accounting --- Capacity Building --- Capital Expenditures --- Civil Society Organizations --- Decentralization --- Expenditures --- Financial Management --- Fiscal Year --- Incentives --- Municipalities --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector --- Public Finance --- Public Sector --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Reform --- Regional Government --- Revenue Forecasting --- Sanitation --- Social Insurance --- Taxes --- Transparency

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Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive.

Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. --- Tax revenue estimating -- Econometric models. --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Revenue forecasting --- Revenue administration --- Budget planning and preparation --- Tax administration core functions --- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Budget --- Economic forecasting --- Azerbaijan, Republic of

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This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting (MTFF). The Economic Affairs Department (EAD) recognizes the desirability of creating a new medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting framework. Existing technical capacity relating to forecasting among most EAD staff is at a basic level. Training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF. There are several risks to the project’s success, including regarding data quality and availability, as well as competing demands on EAD staff time. Limited data and weak relationships between predictors (economic activity) and fiscal variables would limit the forecast accuracy of the MTFF, though it would still allow for more rigorous and transparent projections than is current practice. Regarding staff time, it is understood that EAD staff have a strong interest in the development and usage of an MTFF, hopefully ensuring sufficient time by a core group of persons is devoted to receiving technical assistance support to develop the tool.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Revenue forecasting --- Tax policy --- Expenditure --- Revenue administration --- International agencies --- Economic forecasting --- Tax administration and procedure --- Expenditures, Public --- Revenue --- Finance, Public --- Suriname

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In 2010, after two decades of rapid economic growth, Vietnam passed the threshold to become a lower-middle-income economy. Sustained market-oriented reforms combined with intensive efforts to integrate into the world economy are among the key drivers of this achievement. The reform of tax policy and administration has been a vital part of this transition. This is leading to a fundamental change in the composition of taxpayers, from large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and foreign-invested companies to a myriad of small and medium private enterprises. Economic transition is also leading to an equally important change in the sources of government revenue, away from cross-border trade-related taxes and revenue collection from crude oil toward a greater share of domestic tax revenue, in particular taxation of business profits, labor income, and capital gains on land. However, completing the transition to a market economy will require changes going beyond tax collection and administration procedures, and will involve changes to the tax instruments themselves. At the end of this process, Vietnam should have a set of taxes that is simple and transparent, secures a stable flow of revenues for the government, encourages an efficient allocation of resources, and does not risk constituting a source of inequality or unfairness. The purpose of the series of studies in this volume is to shed light on the issues Vietnam will be facing in the process of reforming its tax policy and administration. The studies are also expected to lead to concrete policy recommendations contributing to the preparation of key policies and legislative documents to ensure the achievement of the state budget revenue target and other tax administration reform targets in the SEDP 2011-2015. It is expected that the individual studies in this series will become useful inputs into the debate surrounding the issuance of new laws and regulations. It is also hoped that the volume will support the reform momentum in the tax policy area, leading to increased efficiency, transparency, and equity.

Bonds --- Business Development --- Capacity Building --- Capital Expenditures --- Cities --- Confidentiality --- Debt --- Decentralization --- Developing Countries --- E-Commerce --- Economic Development --- Exporters --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Global Economy --- Gross Domestic Product --- Household Income --- Human Resources --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Information Technology --- Job Creation --- Law and Development --- Legal Framework --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Economy --- Natural Resources --- Poverty Reduction --- Property Taxes --- Public Sector Governance --- Revenue Forecasting --- Revenue Structure --- Subnational Governments --- Tax Administration --- Tax Evasion --- Tax Law --- Tax Policy --- Tax Policy and Administration --- Taxation & Subsidies --- Technical Assistance --- Technology Transfer --- Transparency --- Treaties