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This paper examines the cost of deflation in the context of Japan's ongoing deflationary episode. The impact of deflation owing to the zero interest rate bound on monetary policy, wage rigidity, redistribution of wealth from debtor to creditor, and inflexibilities in the financial sector are examined. It is seen that the generalized decline in the Japanese price level, however gradual or mild, has substantially exacerbated the economy's adjustment process under already difficult economic conditions.
Deflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy --- Wages --- Disinflation --- Finance --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Other --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Asset prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Real interest rates --- Prices --- Financial services --- Price indexes --- Interest rates --- Japan
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This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate–growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019.
Fiscal policy --- Deflation (Finance) --- Disinflation --- Finance --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Fiscal Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Other --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- Economic recession --- Prices --- Debts, Public --- Recessions --- United States
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Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labor --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Globalization: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Other --- Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining: General --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Electric Utilities --- Gas Utilities --- Pipelines --- Water Utilities --- Economic Development: General --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Social Economics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Energy prices --- Consumer prices --- Fuel prices --- International agencies --- Netherlands, The
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